054
FXUS63 KDDC 301055
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
555 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FLOODING AND DAMAGING WIND RISK
THIS MORNING
- TEMPERATURES NOT AS HOT
- STORM CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
EARLY MORNING RADAR ANALYSIS SHOW TWO AREAS OF STORMS THAT BEAR
WATCHING AS WE CONTINUE INTO THE REST OF THIS MORNING. THE FIRST
AREA IS THE HEAVY STORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA AND
THE SECOND AREA IS STORM DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.
07Z MESOANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT, LEADING
TO VERY SLOW STORM MOTIONS. THE AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA FEATURES MAINLY A HEAVY RAIN RISK, WITH SOME
ISOLATED AREAS OF FLOODING POSSIBLE. FARTHER NORTH FEATURES
SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW AND THAT IS EVIDENCED BY MORE FORWARD
PROPAGATION OF THE STORMS, AND THAT WILL TRANSLATE INTO OUR
NORTHERN CWA AS THE MORNING WEARS ON. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND CONGEALING INTO MORE OF AN MCS COULD FOSTER STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE CLUSTER BECOMES
MORE ORGANIZED. STORMS LOOK TO CLEAR THE EASTERN CWA AFTER 14Z.
AS WE GO INTO LATER TODAY, WE WILL CLEAR OUT AND LEAVE A MAINLY
DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, PLACING SOUTHWEST KANSAS IN
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. AS SUCH, TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOT AS HOT AS
THEY HAVE BEEN, ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE MIDDLE 80S AND LOW 90S
IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
LOOKING THROUGH MID WEEK, LOW TO VERY LOW STORM CHANCES EXIST,
WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING BACK INTO THE 90S BY FRIDAY
AND THE WEEKEND. STORM CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY AND INTO THIS
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
THE HEAVIEST OF THE STORMS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AND AWAY FROM ALL TERMINALS. THERE STILL REMAINS RAINFALL
IMPACTING HYS TERMINAL AND THIS WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. AS FAR AS THE REST OF TAF PERIOD, EXPECTING VFR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS AND
GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS. COULD BE A STRAY THUNDERSTORM NEAR LBL LATER
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CHANCES OF A STORM IMPACTING THE TERMINAL IS
LOW.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BENNETT
AVIATION...BENNETT
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