749
FXUS63 KDDC 011854
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
154 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
- TEMPERATURES RISING INTO HOLIDAY WEEKEND
- STORM CHANCES INCREASE INTO HOLIDAY WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 153 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, THE WEATHER IN WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE
DICTATED BY A DOMINANT HIGH-PRESSURE RIDGE AND A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THIS RIDGE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK. INITIALLY, FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THE RIDGE'S
DIRECT INFLUENCE WILL BRING WARM, DRY, AND SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, ACCOMPANIED BY
SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL BECOME BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
FORM DURING PEAK HEATING ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
BUT CHANCES REMAIN LOW.
A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IS EXPECTED FOR LATE WEEK THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) AS THE RIDGE GETS PUSHED INITIALLY
SOUTHWARD THEN BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY NEXT WEEK. A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THIS RIDGE ENHANCING
LIFT ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL DRAW UNSTABLE, MOIST AIR
NORTHWARD. THIS SETUP, COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES,
WILL INCREASE STORM CHANCES ACROSS KANSAS. WHILE A WIDESPREAD SEVERE
OUTBREAK IS UNLIKELY DUE TO WEAK WIND SHEAR, THE HIGH INSTABILITY
COULD FUEL "PULSE" SEVERE STORMS, POSING LOCALIZED THREATS OF
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS OF 55-70 MPH AND LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION,
TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S THIS WEEKEND INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S TO LOW
70S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION THROUGH TOMORROW.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
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