364
FXUS63 KDDC 021716
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1216 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY
- STORM CHANCES INCREASE FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY AND WEEKEND
- CONTINUED STORM CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2025
LAST EVENING'S 00Z 500 MB OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE CONUS SHOWED
RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE WILL BE
THE MAIN DRIVER FOR OUR WEATHER TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW, LEADING
TO DRY CONDITIONS. AT THE SURFACE, BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN WEATHER HIGHLIGHT TODAY. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE
AFTER ABOUT 18Z WITH WIDESPREAD 15-20 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS AND
GUSTS 25-30+ MPH AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COLORADO
BORDER. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE INTO THE NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN INTO TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL FOR
EARLY JULY, HOVERING AROUND EITHER SIDE OF 90 BOTH DAYS.
MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE STORM CHANCES THIS
INDEPENDENCE DAY AND HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND HOW THEY MAY IMPACT
ANY FESTIVITIES. BY THURSDAY, INFLUENCES FROM THE FIRST OF
SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SOME STORM ACTIVITY. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO
THIS WEEKEND, WITH STORM CHANCES (20-50%) EXISTING EACH DAY FROM
THURSDAY-SUNDAY. NO ONE DAY STANDS OUT OVER THE OTHER, SO OTHER
THAN A LOCAL STRONGER OR SEVERE STORM, NOT ANTICIPATING
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, GIVEN
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND AT LEAST A SOMEWHAT BETTER SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT, IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION A FEW STRONGER STORMS
COULD GET GOING AND RESULT IN DAMAGING DOWNBURST AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THROUGHOUT THIS SAME PERIOD,
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE 90S, WITH
SATURDAY BEING THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE STRETCH.
AFTER THE WEEKEND, ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS COULD BRING
DAILY CHANCES OF RAIN AND STORMS INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2025
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL KEEP
THE WINDS SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO AROUND 15 KNOTS TODAY. THESE
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DRAW
MORE HUMID AIR INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
WITH SEVERAL OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGESTING THAT AN AREA
OF LOW VFR CEILINGS (3000 TO 5000FT AGL) WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS AFTER 09Z THURSDAY MORNING.
AREAS MOST FAVORABLE FOR THESE LOWER VFR CEILINGS WILL BE
LIBERAL AND DODGE CITY.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BENNETT
AVIATION...BURGERT
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