312
FXUS63 KDDC 030607
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
107 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FRIDAY NIGHT THERE WILL BE A 30-60% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
AREAS MOST FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE DODGE CITY AREA.
- MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR ACCUMULATING RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS (20-40%) ALMOST EACH NIGHT FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2025
A 500MB TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES EARLY
THIS MORNING, WITH ONE WEAK UPPER WAVE OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO
AND ANOTHER, STRONGER, UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS
CALIFORNIA. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WAS LOCATED
OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH AN AREA OF MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTH
ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA AT THE 700 AND 850MB LEVELS.
IN THIS AREA OF INCREASING MOISTURE THE RADAR EARLIER TODAY
INDICATED SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WAS OCCURRING.
THIS MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES
OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE WESTERN
NEW MEXICO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
TOWARDS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY WILL DEEPEN THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER
EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THE INCREASING
MOISTURE DURING THE DAY FROM THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT
IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS, WITH POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER DURING THE DAY. ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WILL
BE LIGHT, WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH WILL
ALLOW A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
EMBEDDED IN THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE THE CALIFORNIA UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES FRIDAY MORNING. AS THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
OUT INTO THE WEST CENTRAL HIGH PLAIN EARLY IN THE DAY, THE
DEEPENING LEE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL
MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THIS
BOUNDARY BY LATE DAY FRIDAY AND IMPROVING LIFT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER WAVE...SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THIS CONVECTION WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES
WESTERN KANSAS. AT THIS TIME, BASED ON THE LATEST ENSEMBLE
FORECAST SHEAR, LATE DAY INSTABILITY, AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
>8C/KM, THERE IS A CHANCE, SMALL AS IT MAY BE, THAT A FEW OF
THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG OR EVEN MARGINALLY SEVERE. MAIN
HAZARDS FROM THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL.
OVER THE WEEKEND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE
PLAINS, AND AS IT DOES, THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SATURDAY. A WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW WILL ALSO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PASSES. ENSEMBLES TO VARIOUS
DEGREES ALSO AGREE THAT EMBEDDED IN THIS WESTERLY FLOW THERE
WILL BE SEVERAL UPPER WAVES THAT WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHER PLAINS LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS EACH OF
THESE SUBTLE WAVES EMBEDDED IN THIS WESTERLY FLOW CROSSES THE
ROCKIES AND MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS, IT WILL CREATE AN ONGOING
OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST EACH
DAY FROM LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS, WE CAN LOOK FORWARD
TO HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 ON THURSDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF WARM UP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NEXT WEEK WE
CAN LOOK FORWARD TO TEMPERATURES AROUND THE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
EARLY JULY, RANGING FROM 90 TO 95 DEGREES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT THU JUL 3 2025
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KTS BY 18-20Z AS A SURFACE
TROUGH PERSISTS ON THE HIGH PLAINS AND THEN DECREASE TO 12-15
KTS BY SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BURGERT
AVIATION...FINCH
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