270  
FXUS63 KDDC 251018  
AFDDDC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS  
518 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY, ESPECIALLY EAST OF A HAYS TO TO  
HUGOTON LINE. MAIN HAZARD WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY  
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.  
 
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR  
THIS TIME OF YEAR TODAY. DESPITE TEMPERATURES BEING SLIGHTLY  
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS, HUMIDITY WILL CAUSE HEAT INDEX VALUES TO  
APPROACH 100 DEGREES IN SOME EASTERN AREAS.  
 
- VERY HOT WEATHER IS PREDICTED FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND  
POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY.  
 
- COOLER WEATHER WILL RETURN LATE WEEK ALONG WITH IMPROVING  
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025  
 
EARLIER THIS MORNING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED NORTH OF A SURFACE  
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO THE TEXAS  
PANHANDLE. IN THIS AREA, NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, 850MB  
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A POOL OF HIGHER 850-700MB MOISTURE WAS  
PRESENT BASED ON 850MB AND 700MB 00Z FRIDAY ANALYSIS. THE  
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION AS OF 07Z APPEARED TO CORRELATE  
WELL WITH A 700MB DEFORMATION ZONE THAT STRETCHED FROM NORTHEAST  
KANSAS INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND EXTREME NORTHEAST NEW  
MEXICO. JUST SOUTHWEST OF THIS AREA OF MOISTURE AND ENHANCED  
LIFT WAS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST NEW  
MEXICO, BASED ON THE 700 TO 400MB DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY  
ADVECTION FROM SPC MESOANALYSIS.  
 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE SHORT TERM MODELS WERE IN GOOD  
AGREEMENT WITH THE NEW MEXICO UPPER WAVE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS  
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS ENHANCED MOISTURE AND LIFT CONTINUES ACROSS  
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE AREA MOST  
FAVORABLE FOR THIS CONVECTION DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WILL BE  
SOUTH OF A HAYS TO HUGOTON LINE WHERE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER  
VALUES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH  
MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR. AREAS WHERE THE GREATER RISK  
FOR FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR EARLY TODAY WILL BE SOUTH OF A  
STAFFORD TO KINSLEY TO ASHLAND LINE. ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS ALSO  
CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS  
OF 50 MPH OR SMALL HAIL IS LOW (<15%), IF AT ALL POSSIBLE.  
 
TODAYS TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL  
NORMALS DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING  
THE DAY. EVEN WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE UPPER 80S  
TO LOWER 90S...HUMIDITY VALUES RANGING FROM 50 TO NEARLY 60  
PERCENT WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100 DEGREES IN  
SOME EASTERN LOCATIONS, PRIMARILY EAST OF A LARNED TO ASHLAND  
LINE.  
 
LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND, THE ENSEMBLE REMAIN IN  
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS  
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THESE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE  
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS DUE TO AN UPPER  
RIDGE/HIGH BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE NBMS 25TH TO  
75TH PERCENTILE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY  
NEXT WEEK REMAINS 5 DEGREES OR LESS, GIVING US HIGH CONFIDENCE  
IN THE CURRENT HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST (>80%). HIGHS THIS  
WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 100 ACROSS SOUTHWEST  
KANSAS BY SUNDAY, WITH THIS HEAT CONTINUING THROUGH THE FIRST  
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES FOR MULTIPLE DAYS WILL  
RANGE FROM 100 TO 104 WHICH IS JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY  
CRITERIA. HOWEVER, IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE HEAT INDEX  
VALUES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES  
HIGHER GIVEN THAT THE NBM HAS BEEN STRUGGLING WITH DEW POINTS  
THAT FAR OUT. HAVE BEEN NOTICING THAT THE NBM TREND WITH  
DEWPOINTS IN THAT AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE BEEN INCHING UP  
DEGREE OR TWO OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. ANYONE WITH  
OUTDOOR PLANS THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD MONITOR THE  
FORECAST CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF  
NECESSARY, SHOULD HEAT ADVISORIES BE ISSUED.  
 
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK, THE UPPER RIDGE OVER  
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL RETROGRADE/REDEVELOP ACROSS THE  
WESTERN UNITED STATES. CONCURRENTLY A NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER  
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA INTO THE GREAT  
LAKES REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS AS A COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE EXITS CENTRAL  
CANADA AND MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING AN  
END TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT TEMPERATURES, THOUGH THERE IS  
LOW CONFIDENCE (LESS THAN 30%) REGARDING JUST HOW MUCH COOLER  
AIR WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. CONVERSELY, THERE IS  
HIGHER CONFIDENCE (60-70% CHANCE) THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
RETURN TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK  
WEEK, GIVEN THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY  
IN OR NEAR THE AREA.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 504 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025  
 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT 10Z SHOWED THAT LOW CEILINGS HAVE SPREAD  
INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLIER THAN SHORT TERM MODELS PREDICTED.  
DESPITE THIS, THE FORECAST CEILINGS HEIGHT (500FT OR LESS) STILL  
LOOKS ON TRACK. BUFR SOUNDINGS AND SHORT TERM MODELS BOTH ARE IN  
AGREEMENT THAT THESE CEILINGS WILL PERSIST UNTIL 15Z TODAY,  
COINCIDING WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z, WITH DODGE CITY AND  
HAYS BEING THE LAST LOCATIONS TO SEE VFR DEVELOPMENT. EAST WINDS  
UNDER 10 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST DURING THE  
AFTERNOON. THE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY  
RAINFALL, LEADING TO OCCASIONAL LOW VISIBILITIES (1-2 MILES).  
 

 
   
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...BURGERT  
AVIATION...BURGERT  
 
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