134
FXUS63 KDDC 251600
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1100 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION/KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF US 283. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS AGAIN POSSIBLE.
- DRY WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH A WARMING TREND.
- SUMMER HEAT RETURNS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 DEGREES. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED EAST OF DODGE CITY EACH DAY.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY EVENINGS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025
EARLIER THIS MORNING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED NORTH OF A SURFACE
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. IN THIS AREA, NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, 850MB
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A POOL OF HIGHER 850-700MB MOISTURE WAS
PRESENT BASED ON 850MB AND 700MB 00Z FRIDAY ANALYSIS. THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION AS OF 07Z APPEARED TO CORRELATE
WELL WITH A 700MB DEFORMATION ZONE THAT STRETCHED FROM NORTHEAST
KANSAS INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND EXTREME NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO. JUST SOUTHWEST OF THIS AREA OF MOISTURE AND ENHANCED
LIFT WAS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO, BASED ON THE 700 TO 400MB DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY
ADVECTION FROM SPC MESOANALYSIS.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE SHORT TERM MODELS WERE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE NEW MEXICO UPPER WAVE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS ENHANCED MOISTURE AND LIFT CONTINUES ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE AREA MOST
FAVORABLE FOR THIS CONVECTION DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WILL BE
SOUTH OF A HAYS TO HUGOTON LINE WHERE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH
MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR. AREAS WHERE THE GREATER RISK
FOR FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR EARLY TODAY WILL BE SOUTH OF A
STAFFORD TO KINSLEY TO ASHLAND LINE. ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS ALSO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 50 MPH OR SMALL HAIL IS LOW (<15%), IF AT ALL POSSIBLE.
TODAYS TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING
THE DAY. EVEN WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S...HUMIDITY VALUES RANGING FROM 50 TO NEARLY 60
PERCENT WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100 DEGREES IN
SOME EASTERN LOCATIONS, PRIMARILY EAST OF A LARNED TO ASHLAND
LINE.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND, THE ENSEMBLE REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THESE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS DUE TO AN UPPER
RIDGE/HIGH BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE NBMS 25TH TO
75TH PERCENTILE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK REMAINS 5 DEGREES OR LESS, GIVING US HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE CURRENT HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST (>80%). HIGHS THIS
WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 100 ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS BY SUNDAY, WITH THIS HEAT CONTINUING THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES FOR MULTIPLE DAYS WILL
RANGE FROM 100 TO 104 WHICH IS JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. HOWEVER, IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE HEAT INDEX
VALUES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
HIGHER GIVEN THAT THE NBM HAS BEEN STRUGGLING WITH DEW POINTS
THAT FAR OUT. HAVE BEEN NOTICING THAT THE NBM TREND WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THAT AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE BEEN INCHING UP
DEGREE OR TWO OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. ANYONE WITH
OUTDOOR PLANS THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD MONITOR THE
FORECAST CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF
NECESSARY, SHOULD HEAT ADVISORIES BE ISSUED.
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK, THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL RETROGRADE/REDEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. CONCURRENTLY A NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AS A COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE EXITS CENTRAL
CANADA AND MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING AN
END TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT TEMPERATURES, THOUGH THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE (LESS THAN 30%) REGARDING JUST HOW MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. CONVERSELY, THERE IS
HIGHER CONFIDENCE (60-70% CHANCE) THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RETURN TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK, GIVEN THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW AND A SURFACE BOUNDARY
IN OR NEAR THE AREA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
EAST OF THE AIRPORTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND KEPT THIS
SET OF TAFS DRY. EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY
WITH VFR/SKC AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BURGERT
AVIATION...TURNER
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