555  
FXUS63 KDDC 260525  
AFDDDC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS  
1225 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF US 283. LOCALLY HEAVY  
RAINFALL IS AGAIN POSSIBLE.  
 
- DRY WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH A WARMING TREND.  
 
- SUMMER HEAT RETURNS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH AFTERNOON  
TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 DEGREES. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE  
REQUIRED EAST OF DODGE CITY EACH DAY.  
 
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE WEDNESDAY AND  
THURSDAY EVENINGS.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025  
 
MIDDAY INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED A STRONG SHORTWAVE OR  
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. RADAR SHOWS  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST ZONES,  
REDEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE VORTEX. THIS SYSTEM WAS  
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HEAVY/FLOODING RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST  
COUNTIES LAST NIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE DURING THE 1-4 PM TIME RANGE,  
FAVORING EASTERN ZONES AND CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS EVOLUTION IS  
SUPPORTED BY 12Z NAM/ARW, AND CHANCE/SCATTERED POPS THROUGH THIS  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STRONGLY FAVOR THE EASTERN ZONES.  
SUFFICIENT CAPE OF 1-2K J/KG AND PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.5-1.9  
INCH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.  
FLOODING WILL BE A RISK WHERE HEAVY RAIN FALLS ON SOILS  
SATURATED FROM LAST NIGHT'S RAINS. SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL ALSO  
INCREASE HYDROLOGY CONCERNS. BULK SHEAR IS VERY WEAK, BUT  
COMBINED COLD POOLS MAY GENERATE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THE  
STRONGEST STORMS, PER SPC'S MARGINAL 5% WIND PROBABILITY.  
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT  
COVERAGE FURTHER WEST. THE BREAK FROM THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE  
THIS AFTERNOON WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. MOSTLY  
CLEAR, QUIET AND DRY SUNRISE SATURDAY, WITH SEASONABLE LOW  
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND ITS ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE BUILD IN  
QUICKLY THIS WEEKEND. ALL MODELS SHOW STRONG WARMING SATURDAY,  
WITH A NET INCREASE OF +5 TO +7C AT 850 MB, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER  
1-2C OF WARMING AT 850 MB SUNDAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS STEADILY CLIMB  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO NEAR 596 DM BY LATE SUNDAY. AFTERNOON  
TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A WARMING TREND, BUT AIR TEMPERATURES  
WILL CONTINUE TO LAG 1-2 DEGREES COOLER THAN GUIDANCE, GIVEN  
SATURATED SOILS, STANDING WATER AND GREEN VEGETATION. EXPECTING  
MID TO UPPER 90S SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AND 98-102 ON SUNDAY.  
APPARENT TEMPERATURE GRIDS CARRY VALUES OF 104-107 ACROSS  
EASTERN ZONES AT PEAK HEATING SUNDAY, AND A HEAT ADVISORY IS  
EXPECTED TO BE REQUIRED.  
 
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, A PAIR OF DRY DAYS WITH HOT AFTERNOONS ARE  
EXPECTED, WITH MIDLEVEL RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE IN FULL CONTROL.  
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OF 98-102 ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS, WITH  
AGAIN EASTERN ZONES FLIRTING WITH HEAT ADVISORY DURING PEAK  
HEATING, PENDING DEWPOINT TRENDS.  
 
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING ECMWF AND ITS  
ENSEMBLE MEANS ALL SHOW THE UPPER HIGH WEAKENING SOME, AND  
REPOSITIONING SOUTHWARD TO TEXAS. THE RESULTING WNWLY MIDLEVEL  
FLOW WILL ENCOURAGE DIURNAL CONVECTION TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD  
FROM COLORADO, WITH NBM POPS CONTINUING TO FAVOR THE WESTERN  
ZONES. THE SUMMER HEAT WILL ALSO RELAX DURING THIS TIME, WITH  
NBM REDUCING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE 80S THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2025  
 
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WILL INCREASE  
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z TODAY INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AS  
SURFACE PRESSURES FALL ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. BUFR  
SOUNDINGS AND SHORT TERM ENSEMBLES ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH  
VFR CONDITIONS OVER NEXT 24 HOURS FOR GARDEN CITY, DODGE CITY  
AND LIBERAL. IN THE HAYS AREA THERE WILL BE A 30 TO 505 CHANCE  
FOR CEILINGS TO FALL BELOW 1000FT AGL WITH SOME PATCHY FOG  
AROUND DAYBREAK.  
 

 
   
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...TURNER  
AVIATION...BURGERT  
 
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