207
FXUS63 KDDC 262300
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT
- CONTINUED HOT TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAY WARRANT
ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES
- BEYOND WEDNESDAY, A COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED WITH A RETURN FOR
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2025
CURRENT RAP MESOANALYSIS HAS A MASSIVE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM RESIDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS
A MEANDERING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE WEST COAST. WITH THE
FORECAST AREA LODGED BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS, THERE IS PRIMARILY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY STREAM OF AIR AT THE MID-
LEVELS. WITHOUT A DOMINANT SURFACE SYSTEM, LIGHTER (10-15 MPH)
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOST CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST. TODAY
WILL BE HOT, BUT NOT AS HOT AS THE DAYS AHEAD. THE EASTERN COUNTIES
WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH BARBER COUNTY
EXPECTING TO GET THE CLOSEST AND FLIRT WITH THE 105 DEGREE HEAT
INDEX MARK. LATER ON TODAY, CAMS HAVE CONVECTION CONTINUING TO FIRE
ALONG A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY IN SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. HOW MUCH
OF THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL IMPACT SW KANSAS IS STILL UP IN THE AIR; IT
IS FORECAST THAT THE STORMS WILL LINGER NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER BEFORE
QUICKLY DYING OUT AROUND SUNSET. THE NAMNST FORECAST SOUNDING
REINFORCES THE THINKING THAT LITTLE DYNAMICAL INGREDIENTS WILL BE
PRESENT TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG STORMS OTHER THAN
MODEST SURFACE TO 3KM LAPSE RATES. COMBINED WITH VIRTUALLY NO UPPER-
LEVEL SUPPORT, ANY STORMS THAT REACH KANSAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST
LONG OR BE ROBUST.
SUNDAY IS FORECAST TO BE WARMER THAN TODAY BY A FEW DEGREES, PUSHING
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WELL INTO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE
HOTTEST AREAS COULD SEE HEAT INDICES TOWARDS 110 DEGREES ESPECIALLY
IF THE HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN PLACE. THE BIGGEST
QUESTION OF THE FORECAST SUNDAY IS HOW FAR WEST THE HEAT ADVISORY
SHOULD STRETCH. CURRENTLY, IT SPANS FROM HIGHWAY 283 AND EASTWARD
FROM NOON UNTIL 8 PM CDT. IF HIGHS AND THE HUMID CONTINUE TO PUSH
THE UPPER-END OF THE GUIDANCE, THERE MAY NEED TO BE A FUTURE
EXPANSION WESTWARD.
SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BOTH
AT THE SURFACE, AND AROUND THE 850 MB LEVEL. THAT SAID, BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY POSE A HEAT HAZARD AND WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR
FURTHER HEAT ADVISORY ISSUANCES. UNCERTAINTY ON THE COVERAGE AND
MAXIMUM HEAD INDICES HAS HELD OFF ISSUANCE TODAY. REGARDLESS OF
CRITERIA, EVERYONE SPENDING SIGNIFICANT TIME OUTDOORS OVER THESE FEW
DAYS SHOULD ADVISE HEAT PREPARATIONS AND PRECAUTIONS TO STAY SAFE
THROUGH THE HEAT.
WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST TO BE THE LAST VERY HOT DAY OF THE STRETCH.
ENSEMBLES THEN HAVE A SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH COOLING TEMPERATURES
AROUND 10 DEGREES AND BRINGING MORE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION.
ENSEMBLES PLACE STORM CHANCES AT AROUND 20-40% NORTH OF HIGHWAY 56
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT SUBSEQUENT DAYS LOOK VERY HOMOGENEOUS FROM
A FORECAST PERSPECTIVE; HIGHS IN THE 80S WITH ROUNDS OF UNCERTAIN
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF
THE CWA.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2025
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THIS TAF CYCLE FOR ALL TERMINALS. CURRENT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AOA 12 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD INTO TOMORROW MORNING. AROUND 16Z, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
MODESTLY STRENGTHEN TO 13-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 23-25 KTS THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ030-031-045-
046-064>066-078>081-087>090.
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...SPRINGER
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