670  
FXUS63 KDDC 271644  
AFDDDC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS  
1144 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT  
 
- CONTINUED HOT TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAY WARRANT  
ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES.  
 
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS  
WILL RETURN THE LAST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS LATE WEEK  
ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 80S.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2025  
 
A WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS  
MORNING WITH SUBTLE WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE WEST/NORTHWESTERN  
EDGE OF AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES  
IMPACTING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, EASTERN COLORADO, AND WESTERN  
KANSAS. ISOLATED STORMS THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER ACROSS SOUTHEAST  
COLORADO HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. AT THE SURFACE, A TROUGH OF LOW  
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN COLORADO, RESULTING IN A  
SOUTH SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. SURFACE DEW POINTS  
RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AT 2AM, NOTABLY HIGHER THAN  
FORECAST BY NBM GUIDANCE 24 HOURS PRIOR. THESE DEWPOINTS WERE  
CLOSER TO THE 75TH PERCENTILE. TEMPERATURES ALSO ENDED UP A FEW  
DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE.  
 
FOR TODAY THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES THIS MORNING SHOW LITTLE  
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS, INDICATING AN UPPER HIGH BUILDING  
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO HOT AND DRY  
CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  
HIGH CONFIDENCE (OVER 80%) REMAINS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND  
100 DEGREES TO BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY FROM TODAY THROUGH EARLY  
NEXT WEEK. THESE FORECAST HIGHS ARE SUPPORTED BY 850MB AND  
700MB TEMPERATURES AND MINIMAL SPREAD IN THEIR 25TH TO 75TH  
PERCENTILE. THESE HIGHS ALSO ACCOUNTS FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE A  
FEW DEGREE COOL BIAS IN GUIDANCE BASED ON YESTERDAYS HIGH  
TEMPERATURES.  
 
GIVEN THAT AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 WERE HIGHER  
YESTERDAY THAN WHAT WAS SUGGESTED BY NBM GUIDANCE AND WERE  
CLOSER TO THE 75TH PERCENTILE HAVE DECIDED TO TREND TOWARDS THE  
HIGHER 75TH PERCENTILE DEWPOINTS TODAY. FOLLOWING THIS BIAS AND  
GIVEN POTENTIAL HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 DEGREES, HEAT INDEX  
VALUES OF 105 OR HIGHER REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE  
CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY AREA.  
 
ON MONDAY IF THIS TREND OF TEMPERATURES BEING A FEW DEGREES  
WARMER THAN NBM GUIDANCE CONTINUES, AND HIGHER AFTERNOON DEW  
POINTS...A HEAT ADVISORY MAY ONCE AGAIN BE WARRANTED FOR THE  
I-70 CORRIDOR, THEN ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 283. AFTER GOOD  
COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE RESULTED DECIDED TO  
HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. NEXT  
SHIFT WITH NEW INFORMATION WILL HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS.  
 
THIS HEAT WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE  
AXIS BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST UNITED STATES AND BRITISH  
COLUMBIA. AS THIS OCCURS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO  
MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT  
LAKES REGION. AS THIS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE WESTERN GREAT  
LAKES, A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS,  
AND A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM EASTERN  
COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL LEAD TO LOWER DEW POINTS  
AND CONSEQUENTLY LOWER HEAT INDEX VALUES. THEREFORE, THE ONLY  
AREAS OF CONCERN ON TUESDAY WILL BE LOCATIONS NEAR MEDICINE  
LODGE, PRATT, AND ST. JOHNS. DESPITE HEAT INDEX VALUES FALLING  
BELOW 105 FOR MANY LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THOSE  
WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD CONTINUE USING HEAT SAFETY TIPS.  
 
AS THE SURFACE TROUGH EXITS COLORADO AND MOVES INTO WESTERN  
KANSAS TOWARD MID WEEK, THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN  
TO INCREASE. WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE  
POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT FINALLY DROPS SOUTH  
INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND OUR NEXT MORE  
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WET  
AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL THEN LINGER THROUGH THE START OF THE  
WEEKEND, WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR (HIGHS ONLY IN THE 80S)  
BEING POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE  
PERIOD. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR WITH A CONTINUED  
SOUTHERLY WIND AT PRIMARILY 15-20 MPH.  
 
 
   
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ030-031-045-  
046-064>066-078>081-087>090.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...BURGERT  
AVIATION...KBJ  
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