794
FXUS63 KDDC 272023
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
323 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM SUNDAY
- CONTINUED HOT TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAY WARRANT
ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES WITH FORECAST HEAT INDICES PUSHING
105 IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RETURN THE LAST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS LATE WEEK
ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 80S
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2025
THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS REMAINED STEADY OVER
THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. A ROBUST HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO
DOMINATE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. RAP MESOANALYSIS MAINTAINS A
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WITH THESE TWO
SYSTEMS, THE FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO BE WEAK AND SOUTHWESTERLY. AT
THE SURFACE, A VERY WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW, THERE IS A WEAK
NORTH/SOUTH BOUNDARY. SIMILAR TO SATURDAY, SOME CAM MODEL RUNS HAVE
A WEAK CLUSTER OF STORMS FIRING ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. AGAIN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL
WITH A NEAR-ZERO SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. NAMNST FORECAST SOUNDINGS
HAVE ALMOST NO SHEAR OR SRH WITH ONLY AROUND 1500 J/KG OF CAPE. IN
THE MEANTIME, TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY HEATING UP THROUGH THE 90S.
A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY UNTIL 8 PM CDT WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST AROUND 100 DEGREES FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. THE
FORECAST DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE. IF THAT VERIFIES, HEAT INDICES UP TO 110 DEGREES IS
POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE HOT DAYS. ENSEMBLES HAVE
MOST OF THE MOISTURE STAYING IN PLACE AND THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES
DROPPING SLIGHTLY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY COOLER
COUPLE DAYS AND WILL RIDE THE LINE OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HIGHS
ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 90S AND EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES IN SOME
AREAS. IF THE DEWPOINTS AND HIGHS CAN REACH OR EXCEED THE CURRENT
FORECAST, A HEAT ADVISORY IS LIKELY NEEDED. TIMING OF A POTENTIAL
COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY MAY MITIGATE MUCH OF THE HEAT RISK TUESDAY
BESIDES THE EASTERN COUNTIES. ENSEMBLES HIT AT AROUND A 20% CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER,
THE GREATER PRECIPITATION LIKELIHOOD IS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ENSEMBLES HAVE THE AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 56 AT OR ABOVE A 40%
CHANCE FOR STORMS. THIS LEADS INTO A COOLER AND WETTER STRETCH OF A
WEATHER PATTERN. THE END OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO HAVE HIGHS
PRIMARILY IN THE 80S WILL MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF UNCERTAIN PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR WITH A CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY WIND AT PRIMARILY 15-20 MPH.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ030-031-045-
046-064>066-078>081-087>090.
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...KBJ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page