772
FXUS63 KDDC 280515
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1215 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CONTINUED VERY HOT AFTERNOONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HEAT INDEX
WILL BE NEAR HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS EAST OF DODGE CITY EACH
AFTERNOON.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS RETURN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- A STRONG MIDSUMMER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
PROVIDING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2025
THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS REMAINED STEADY
OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. A ROBUST HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS
CONTINUED TO DOMINATE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. RAP
MESOANALYSIS MAINTAINS A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WITH THESE TWO SYSTEMS, THE FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES TO BE WEAK AND SOUTHWESTERLY. AT THE SURFACE, A VERY
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO. ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW, THERE IS A WEAK NORTH/SOUTH
BOUNDARY. SIMILAR TO SATURDAY, SOME CAM MODEL RUNS HAVE A WEAK
CLUSTER OF STORMS FIRING ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. AGAIN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MINIMAL WITH A NEAR-ZERO SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. NAMNST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS HAVE ALMOST NO SHEAR OR SRH WITH ONLY AROUND 1500 J/KG
OF CAPE. IN THE MEANTIME, TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY HEATING UP
THROUGH THE 90S. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY UNTIL 8 PM
CDT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST AROUND 100 DEGREES FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA. THE FORECAST DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. IF THAT VERIFIES, HEAT INDICES UP
TO 110 DEGREES IS POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE HOT DAYS. ENSEMBLES
HAVE MOST OF THE MOISTURE STAYING IN PLACE AND THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING SLIGHTLY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A
SLIGHTLY COOLER COUPLE DAYS AND WILL RIDE THE LINE OF HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. HIGHS ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 90S AND
EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS. IF THE DEWPOINTS AND HIGHS
CAN REACH OR EXCEED THE CURRENT FORECAST, A HEAT ADVISORY IS
LIKELY NEEDED. TIMING OF A POTENTIAL COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY MAY
MITIGATE MUCH OF THE HEAT RISK TUESDAY BESIDES THE EASTERN
COUNTIES. ENSEMBLES HIT AT AROUND A 20% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE GREATER
PRECIPITATION LIKELIHOOD IS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ENSEMBLES HAVE
THE AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 56 AT OR ABOVE A 40% CHANCE FOR
STORMS. THIS LEADS INTO A COOLER AND WETTER STRETCH OF A WEATHER
PATTERN. THE END OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO HAVE HIGHS
PRIMARILY IN THE 80S WILL MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF UNCERTAIN
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2025
HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY WILL ACCOMPANY SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL WAVES AS
THEY ROTATE AROUND AN UPPER HIGH BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. UNDER THIS UPPER HIGH, A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT
SURFACE WILL BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN COLORADO. SOUTHERLY WINDS
AT MIDNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WERE 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THESE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z MONDAY AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO DEEPENS AND STRONGER
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATE VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT THEY ALSO
INDICATE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND MOISTURE AFTER 15Z MONDAY AT
OR ABOVE 12000 FEET AGL.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...BURGERT
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