514
FXUS63 KDDC 281010
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
510 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HEAT INDEX AROUND 105
EXPECTED NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND EAST OF A NESS CITY TO
MEDICINE LODGE LINE TODAY. HEAT INDEX NEAR 105 POSSIBLE IN
THIS AREA ON TUESDAY.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS RETURN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED WATER ISSUES.
- A STRONG MIDSUMMER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
PROVIDING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THE
WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2025
EARLIER THIS MORNING A 500MB HIGH EXTENDED FROM OKLAHOMA INTO
MISSISSIPPI. WATER VAPOR AND SPC MESO ANALYSIS INDICATED SEVERAL
SUBTLE WAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS UPPER HIGH WERE LOCATED
ACROSS COLORADO, WYOMING, AND NEBRASKA. AT THE SURFACE, A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN COLORADO, AND A COLD
FRONT EXTENDED FROM WEST TO EAST FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TO
NORTHEAST WYOMING. A NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS
LOCATED OVER MINNESOTA, WITH A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LOCATED OVER CANADA.
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY SHOWING THIS
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE REMAINING NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS WESTERN
KANSAS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS BORDER AND ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS ON
TUESDAY. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE, WITH
HIGHS TODAY AND TUESDAY CLIMBING TO NEAR 100 DEGREES.
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES TODAY OF AROUND 105 DEGREES ARE
LIKELY (>70%) ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND GENERALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF NESS CITY TO MEDICINE LODGE LINE, BASED ON THESE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN ON TUESDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN EXCEEDING 105
DEGREES HAS DECREASED TO AROUND 50% DUE TO LOWER DEWPOINTS
FORECASTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY
SEVERAL SHORT TERM MODELS. AS A RESULT, A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE
ISSUED TODAY FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND LOCATIONS
NEAR AND EAST OF A NESS CITY TO MEDICINE LODGE LINE. WILL HOLD
OFF ON ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY FOR TUESDAY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
OF THE EXACT COVERAGE AND LOWER CONFIDENCE. EVEN IF YOUR AREA
IS NOT UNDER A HEAT ADVISORY TODAY OR TUESDAY, IT IS CRUCIAL TO
PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY PRECAUTIONS, AS HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 100
DEGREES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO NEAR 105
DEGREES.
CHANGES IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH THAT HAS BEEN LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH AS
THE CANADIAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES.
THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS AND NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER
WILL BECOME AN AREA OF FORCING BY TUESDAY EVENING AS SUBTLE
UPPER WAVES CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE SOUTHWARD FORCED UPPER
HIGH. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS SOUTHWEST KANSAS IN A
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM RISK FOR TUESDAY EVENING. WHILE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED, ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP NEAR WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.
ON WEDNESDAY, WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL
BE LOCATED DURING THE DAY DUE TO THE CONVECTION ALONG IT TUESDAY
NIGHT. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, IT WILL REMAIN HOT. HOWEVER,
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE OUT OF ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS ALONG
THE DEVELOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A MOISTURE AXIS THAT WILL
BE PRESENT NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE 700MB SREF INDICATES
DIVERGENT FLOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES MID WEEK WHICH MAY SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS LATE WEEK REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY CROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL NOT ONLY USHER IN SOME COOLER AIR INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS BUT ALSO IT WILL SHIFT THE AREA OF HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALREADY HIGHLIGHTED SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS AN
AREA WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LATER IN THE
WEEK. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXACT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
AND LOCATIONS, ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS INDICATE A 30 TO 50% CHANCE FOR
24 HOUR RAINFALL TO EXCEED 0.75 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS, ENDING AT 7 PM FRIDAY.
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LATE THIS WEEK. FOR THE SECOND DAY IN A ROW,
THE ECMWF EXTREME FORECAST INDEX FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON FRIDAY
WAS -0.6 TO -0.8, AND ITS COVERAGE HAS EVEN EXPANDED. THE SHIFT
OF TAILS IS POSITIVE. THIS COMBINATION INDICATES HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN AN EXTREME EVENT DUE TO MOST MEMBERS SHOWING AN
ANOMALOUS EVENT. THE NBM ALSO INDICATES A 60-70% CHANCE FOR
HIGHS TO BE LESS THAN 80 DEGREES ON FRIDAY. THIS LATE WEEK/EARLY
WEEKEND COOL DOWN WILL BE A WELCOME BREAK FROM THE HEAT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 509 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2025
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z TODAY AS STRONGER WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND SURFACE PRESSURES FALL
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING ONLY HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AS SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL WAVES ROTATE AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH THAT IS BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ030-031-045-046-065-066-079-081-090.
DISCUSSION...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT
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