281  
FXUS63 KDDC 290523  
AFDDDC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS  
1223 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MONDAY IN THE NORTH  
AND EAST COUNTIES  
 
- ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERNMOST 3  
COUNTIES TUESDAY FROM 1-8 PM  
 
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS RETURN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE  
MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL  
WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED WATER ISSUES  
 
- A STRONG MIDSUMMER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT,  
PROVIDING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THE  
WORK WEEK  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2025  
 
THE SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS MOSTLY UNCHANGED. A STRONG AND  
UNMOVING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STILL PARKED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN  
CONUS IN THE UPPER-LEVELS; THE FLOW ALOFT IS STILL PRIMARILY ZONAL.  
A SUBTLER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS FORMED AND SLOWLY MOVED ACROSS THE  
EASTERN CO/WY. FOR SW KANSAS, A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT  
UNTIL 8 PM CDT FOR THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES TODAY. HEAT  
INDICES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO REACH THE FORECAST WIDESPREAD 106  
DEGREES IN THE HEAT ADVISORY. IT SEEMS ENSEMBLES HAVE FINALLY  
CAPTURED THE MOISTURE IN THE AREA PROPERLY ENOUGH TO BE A MORE  
DEPENDABLE HEAT INDEX FORECAST.  
 
TOMORROW IS EXPECTED TO BE ANOTHER HOT DAY. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO  
MONDAY UP AROUND THE 100 DEGREE MARK. THE DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO  
BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER WHICH MAY KEEP HEAT INDICES FROM REACHING  
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE EASTERN 3 COUNTIES ARE IN ANOTHER HEAT  
ADVISORY TOMORROW FROM 1-8 PM CDT WITH SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL TO REACH  
THAT 105 DEGREE HEAT INDEX MARK. VERY LATE ON TUESDAY IS THE START  
OF A CHANGE IN PATTERN WITH WETTER AND COOLER WEATHER. THROUGH THE  
OVERNIGHT, COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ADVECTED DOWN INTO  
SW KANSAS AS THE WAVE MOVES THOUGH. HIGHS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER  
FOR WESTERN KANSAS WITH HIGHS MOSTLY STAYING IN THE LOW 90S. THIS  
ALSO RETURNS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TO SW KANSAS. THE BEST CHANCES  
CONTINUE TO BE 20-40% (VIA ENSEMBLES) IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES  
IN THE CWA. CAMS HAVE THE STORMS DEVELOPING AS A LINE AROUND 7 PM  
AND BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE ONLY A FEW HOURS LATER. THE BIGGEST  
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS IS THE FLOODING POTENTIAL ALTHOUGH SOME  
STRONG GUSTS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. IF THE STORMS MOVE SLOWLY, THEY  
MAY END UP DROPPING LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS.  
 
THE WEDNESDAY OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL MIRROR THE PREVIOUS 24  
HOURS. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION PROSPECTS CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER LINE  
OF STORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCES (UP TO 50% VIA ENSEMBLES) TO THE  
NORTH AND WEST. THURSDAY HIGHS WILL COOL EVEN FURTHER PRIMARILY  
RESIDING IN THE 80S PROVIDING SIGNIFICANT RELIEF FROM THE HOT  
TEMPERATURES SEEN EARLIER IN THE WEEK. THE REST OF THE FORECAST  
PERIOD CARRY'S ON THE NEW PATTERN WITH HIGHS IN THE 70/80S AND  
MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY OUT WEST. IT IS  
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN MORE DETAILS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND  
UNPREDICTABILITY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025  
 
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN  
COLORADO AT 05Z WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS  
TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY...SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 10  
KNOTS OR LESS WILL INCREASE TO 15 AND 20 KNOTS BETWEEN 15Z AND  
18Z TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
HOWEVER, AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AT 8000 TO 12000 FEET AGL WILL BE  
POSSIBLE LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT DUE TO ISOLATED TO WIDELY  
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLORADO  
BORDER. CURRENT FORECAST STORM MOTION INDICATES THAT ONLY GARDEN  
CITY AND HAYS HAVE A 30% CHANCE OR LESS OF STORMS AFTER 00Z  
WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS  
EVENING FOR KSZ066-081-090.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...KBJ  
AVIATION...BURGERT  
 
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