302
FXUS63 KDDC 291650
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1150 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERNMOST 3 COUNTIES
TUESDAY FROM 1-8 PM
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN HAZARD
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED WATER ISSUES
- A STRONG MIDSUMMER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
PROVIDING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THE
WORK WEEK. CURRENT FORECAST HAS HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
EARLIER THIS MORNING AN UPPER HIGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH SUBTLE UPPER WAVES ROTATING AROUND IT.
OVER OR NEAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WAS LOCATED NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER AND A COLD FRONT APPEARED
TO BE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA.
FOR TODAY THE SURFACE TROUGH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN COLORADO
BY LATE DAY WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS AS THE COLD FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS BORDER. THESE TWO AREAS WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR LATE DAY AND OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS. ALONG THE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE, ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS (20-30%
CHANCE) ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WESTERN KANSAS/SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY LESS
THAN 10% DUE TO THE UPPER HIGH AND WEAK FLOW. WHILE SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED, ISOLATED WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH
CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN HIGH CLOUD BASES. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS OUTLINED THIS AREA WITH A GENERAL RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.
ALSO TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF HOT CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES, WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES RANGING FROM 100 TO AROUND 105. THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX
VALUES ARE FOCUSED ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281, WHERE A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. FURTHER WEST THE HEAT INDEX READINGS IN
EXCESS OF 100 WILL CONTINUE SO ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO EXERCISE HEAT SAFETY PRECAUTIONS, EVEN IF NOT UNDER
A HEAT ADVISORY.
ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL BE MONITORING A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS BORDER LATE TODAY (TUESDAY) AND WILL MOVE
SOUTH INTO KANSAS DUE TO AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE SHORT TERM MODELS DIFFER ON THE EXACT
SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS FRONT, THE GENERAL TREND REMAINS
THE SAME...COOLER AIR WILL RETURN BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY COMPARED TO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY, IT WILL BE ANOTHER HOT LATE JULY DAY, WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES POTENTIALLY CLIMBING TO NEAR 105. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO BRING IMPROVING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING GIVEN AFTERNOON INSTABILITY, IMPROVING LOW
LEVEL FORCING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND A MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW BEING
PRESENT NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE UPPER HIGH WILL
STILL HAVE SOME INFLUENCE AS IT MOVES SOUTH INTO TEXAS SO
CURRENTLY THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW BUT GIVEN THE
FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, THESE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC) HAS A MARGINAL RISK (LESS THAN
15%) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
FROM 12Z WEDNESDAY TO 12Z THURSDAY.
IT WILL BE TURNING COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH ONGOING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. ON THURSDAY COOLER TEMPERATURES SPREAD ACROSS ALL
OF WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES
TO TRACK SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IS STILL FORECAST TO BE
LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES LATE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY
FOR WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING RAINFALL. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE
THAT SIMILAR TO LATE WEDNESDAY THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS
BOUNDARY IS UNCERTAIN SO EXACTLY WHERE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
THESE STORMS WILL OCCUR IS UNCLEAR BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS
AMONG MODELS SUGGESTS THAT SOME PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL
BE IN AN AREA WHERE NBM GUIDANCE INDICATES A 30-50% CHANCE OF
RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEEDING ONE HALF INCH. THIS ONGOING CHANCE FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL HAS PROMPTED THE WPC TO MAINTAIN A
MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON
THURSDAY.
IN ADDITION TO THE WET WEATHER LATE WEEK, UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED. THE ECMWF EXTREME FORECAST INDEX
FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON FRIDAY CONTINUES TO INDICATE A
-0.6 TO -0.8 WITH A POSITIVE SHIFT OF TAILS. THIS FAVORS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES TO BE UNSEASONABLY COOL WHICH IS ALSO
WHAT THE LATEST ECWMF/NAEFS COOL 850MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
AND NBM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURE TRENDS INDICATE. THE LATEST NBM
GUIDANCE NOW FORECASTS HIGHS FOR MOST OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM 85 TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. ENJOY THIS COOLER
WEATHER LATE THIS WEEK, AS IT IS EARLY AUGUST AND THE PATTERN
TREND TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST IS FOR ANOTHER WARMUP.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT FLIGHT CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AROUND 6Z, A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH
SW KANSAS. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS CONSIDERABLY AND IS PUT IN THE TAF
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE STRENGTH AND DURATION OF THE SHIFT.
ADDITIONALLY, BEHIND THE FRONT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED.
THE EASTWARD EXTENT IS ALSO HOLDS UNCERTAINTY, BUT THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS THAT STORMS WILL STAY WEST OF ALL TERMINALS. HYS HAS
VCSH FOR DISSOLVING STORMS/SHOWERS MOVING NEAR THE TERMINAL THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ066-081-090.
DISCUSSION...BURGERT
AVIATION...KBJ
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