915
FXUS63 KDDC 292006
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
306 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERNMOST 3
COUNTIES TUESDAY UNTIL 8 PM
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN HAZARD
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED WATER ISSUES
- A STRONG MIDSUMMER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
PROVIDING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THE
WORK WEEK. CURRENT FORECAST HAS HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALOFT HAS CONTINUED TO REMAIN FAIRLY UNCHANGED
WITH THE PATTERN DOMINATED BY A LARGE AND DEEP HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
HAS DEVELOPED OFF THE ROCKIES AND CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ENCROACH ON
THE FORECAST AREA.
TODAY MARKS THE LAST DAY OF WIDESPREAD HEAT FOR A FEW DAYS. HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN CLIMB TOWARDS 100 DEGREES ACROSS SW
KANSAS. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR BARBER, PRATT, AND STAFFORD
COUNTIES UNTIL 8 PM CDT WITH HEAT INDICES UP TO 105 DEGREES. INTO
THE EVENING, THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN FOR SW KANSAS FINALLY
CHANGES. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN
THE LATE EVENING AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING OFF OF THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED SURFACE LOW. THIS WILL CAUSE A DRAMATIC WIND SHIFT, COOLER
TEMPERATURES, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. CAMS HAVE HELD
FIRM THAT THE SIGNIFICANT MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LITTLE COVERAGE EXPANDING INTO
THE AREA. WEAK STORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGAN FIRING IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF COLORADO. THE HRRR, RAP, AND NAMNST ALL HAVE THE STORMS
REACHING AS FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM JOHNSON CITY TO SCOTT CITY. AS
THE STORMS WEAKEN AND DISSOLVE THEY MAY MEANDER EASTWARD, BUT THE
TANGIBLE EFFECTS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. EVEN AT THEIR STRONGEST, THESE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR SEVERE THRESHOLDS ALTHOUGH
GUSTS MAY REACH UP TO 40 MPH.
WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND CAA FROM THE FRONT, WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH
COOLER. BARBER COUNTY IS THE ONLY COUNTY WITH A DECENT CHANCE TO
NEAR 100 DEGREES, BUT MOST OF SW KANSAS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S-
LOWER 90S FOR THE HIGH. LATE WEDNESDAY ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STORMS
ARRIVES TO SW KANSAS KANSAS. ENSEMBLES HAVE AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY
54 AT OR ABOVE A 55% CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. CAM'S HAVE THE STORM
CHANCES STARTING AROUND 7 PM WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO
FALL NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER IN FAR SW KANSAS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAYS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. FORECASTED HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 70S. THIS IS DUE
TO THE COLDER AIR BROUGHT BY THE FRONT, CONTINUED WEAK CAA FROM THE
NORTHEAST, AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER DUE TO THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
STORMS THAT LINGER INTO THURSDAY. THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ENSEMBLES
HAVE A MODEST WARM-UP WITH HIGHS RISING UP TOWARDS THE 90S. ALSO
DURING THE WEEKEND, ENSEMBLES DEPICT A COUPLE ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION, BUT EXACT DETAILS ARE TOO UNCERTAIN WITH THE PATTERN,
ESPECIALLY WITH THE TEMPORAL UNCERTAINTY. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL
LOOK SIMILAR TO THE WEEKEND WITH WARM TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN THE
90S) AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR WAVES OF PRECIPITATION (15-30% VIA
ENSEMBLES).
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT FLIGHT CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AROUND 6Z, A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH
SW KANSAS. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS CONSIDERABLY AND IS PUT IN THE TAF
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE STRENGTH AND DURATION OF THE SHIFT.
ADDITIONALLY, BEHIND THE FRONT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED.
THE EASTWARD EXTENT IS ALSO HOLDS UNCERTAINTY, BUT THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS THAT STORMS WILL STAY WEST OF ALL TERMINALS. HYS HAS
VCSH FOR DISSOLVING STORMS/SHOWERS MOVING NEAR THE TERMINAL THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ066-081-090.
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...KBJ
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