643  
FXUS63 KDDC 292257  
AFDDDC  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS  
557 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERNMOST 3  
COUNTIES TUESDAY UNTIL 8 PM  
 
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS WEST  
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS WILL BE  
THE MAIN HAZARD  
 
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND  
THURSDAY. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND PERIODS OF  
HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED WATER ISSUES  
 
- A STRONG MIDSUMMER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT,  
PROVIDING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THE  
WORK WEEK. CURRENT FORECAST HAS HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY  
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025  
 
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALOFT HAS CONTINUED TO REMAIN FAIRLY UNCHANGED  
WITH THE PATTERN DOMINATED BY A LARGE AND DEEP HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM  
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  
HAS DEVELOPED OFF THE ROCKIES AND CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ENCROACH ON  
THE FORECAST AREA.  
 
TODAY MARKS THE LAST DAY OF WIDESPREAD HEAT FOR A FEW DAYS. HIGHS  
ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN CLIMB TOWARDS 100 DEGREES ACROSS SW  
KANSAS. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR BARBER, PRATT, AND STAFFORD  
COUNTIES UNTIL 8 PM CDT WITH HEAT INDICES UP TO 105 DEGREES. INTO  
THE EVENING, THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN FOR SW KANSAS FINALLY  
CHANGES. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN  
THE LATE EVENING AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING OFF OF THE PREVIOUSLY  
MENTIONED SURFACE LOW. THIS WILL CAUSE A DRAMATIC WIND SHIFT, COOLER  
TEMPERATURES, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. CAMS HAVE HELD  
FIRM THAT THE SIGNIFICANT MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP  
TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LITTLE COVERAGE EXPANDING INTO  
THE AREA. WEAK STORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGAN FIRING IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST  
PORTION OF COLORADO. THE HRRR, RAP, AND NAMNST ALL HAVE THE STORMS  
REACHING AS FAR EAST AS A LINE FROM JOHNSON CITY TO SCOTT CITY. AS  
THE STORMS WEAKEN AND DISSOLVE THEY MAY MEANDER EASTWARD, BUT THE  
TANGIBLE EFFECTS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. EVEN AT THEIR STRONGEST, THESE  
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR SEVERE THRESHOLDS ALTHOUGH  
GUSTS MAY REACH UP TO 40 MPH.  
 
WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND CAA FROM THE FRONT, WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH  
COOLER. BARBER COUNTY IS THE ONLY COUNTY WITH A DECENT CHANCE TO  
NEAR 100 DEGREES, BUT MOST OF SW KANSAS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S-  
LOWER 90S FOR THE HIGH. LATE WEDNESDAY ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STORMS  
ARRIVES TO SW KANSAS KANSAS. ENSEMBLES HAVE AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY  
54 AT OR ABOVE A 55% CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. CAM'S HAVE THE STORM  
CHANCES STARTING AROUND 7 PM WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO  
FALL NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER IN FAR SW KANSAS.  
 
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAYS OF THE  
FORECAST PERIOD. FORECASTED HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 70S. THIS IS DUE  
TO THE COLDER AIR BROUGHT BY THE FRONT, CONTINUED WEAK CAA FROM THE  
NORTHEAST, AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER DUE TO THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT  
STORMS THAT LINGER INTO THURSDAY. THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ENSEMBLES  
HAVE A MODEST WARM-UP WITH HIGHS RISING UP TOWARDS THE 90S. ALSO  
DURING THE WEEKEND, ENSEMBLES DEPICT A COUPLE ROUNDS OF  
PRECIPITATION, BUT EXACT DETAILS ARE TOO UNCERTAIN WITH THE PATTERN,  
ESPECIALLY WITH THE TEMPORAL UNCERTAINTY. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL  
LOOK SIMILAR TO THE WEEKEND WITH WARM TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN THE  
90S) AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR WAVES OF PRECIPITATION (15-30% VIA  
ENSEMBLES).  
 
 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 552 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025  
 
A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IN THIS TAF TIMEFRAME. AN  
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN  
AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH THE  
OVERNIGHT. IN GENERAL FLIGHT CATEGORY SHOULD BE VFR HOWEVER WITH  
PASSING THUNDERSTORMS WE COULD SEE DOWNGRADES TO MVFR OR IFR  
DURING THE TIME A THUNDERSTORM IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE  
AIRPORT.  
 
FOR HYS: THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH  
AROUND 03Z WITH PROB30S THROUGH 12Z. WINDS SHOULD BE VARIABLE  
OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 8-15 KTS. PROB30S RETURN AFTER  
18Z WITH SURFACE VISIBILITY FALLING TO AROUND 3-4 SM AND  
CEILINGS TO 2,500 FT.  
 
FOR DDC, GCK, AND LBL: THE FRONT AND WIND CHANGE WILL BE AROUND  
07-08Z WITH VARIABLE DIRECTION OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST  
THROUGH 12Z. PROB30S FOR STORMS WILL BE AFTER 18Z WITH HIGHER  
LIKELIHOOD CLOSER TO 22Z.  
 
 
   
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ066-081-090.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...KBJ  
AVIATION...TATRO  
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