679
FXUS63 KDDC 300753
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
253 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 1PM UNTIL 7 PM FOR BARBER COUNTY
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED WATER ISSUES
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
DEGREES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. WE
WILL BE MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS FROM THESE
WEEKEND STORMS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
EARLIER THIS MORNING (1AM) WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
OCCURRING ALONG A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.
THIS CONVECTION AS LOCATED AHEAD OF A 400-200MB PVU THAT WAS
SLOWLY MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE SHORT TERM MODELS WERE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE BY DAYBREAK ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH, WHICH WILL CROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WHILE A FEW VERY ISOLATED EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS NEAR THIS BOUNDARY CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT DUE
TO SYNOPTIC LIFT AND MID LEVEL FORCING, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED, AND CONFIDENCE IN THIS EARLY MORNING STORM ACTIVITY
IS LESS THAN 20%. BY MID AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
INTO WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND THIS FIRST SURFACE BOUNDARY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE MEDICINE LODGE AREA AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY 00Z
THURSDAY. GIVEN THE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY NEAR THIS COLD FRONT,
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL FORCING AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPING JUST NORTH OF THIS COLD FRONT, CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS (20-30%).
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALSO WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
COLORADO WHICH WILL BE OUR PRIMARY FOCUS FOR OVERNIGHT STORMS.
THESE STORMS WILL TRACK TOWARDS SOUTHWEST KANSAS ALONG THIS
INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE. AS A RESULT
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS AS THESE STORMS MOVE
INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS AFTER 7 PM TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
THE ARKANSAS RIVER AS THE RAP INDICATES AN UPPER WAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ANYWHERE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT, THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR ACCUMULATING RAINFALL
(50-70%) WILL BE NEAR AND SOUTH OF A GARDEN CITY TO DODGE CITY
TO PRATT LINE. IN THIS AREA, LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THESE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO HIGH PWATS, IN ADDITION TO WIND
GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CURRENTLY HAS
A MARGINAL RISK COVERING THIS AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT
FROM THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING GIVEN
THAT RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH AN HOUR BEING POSSIBLE.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THURSDAY...OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL PUSH THE
COLD FRONT FURTHER SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY THOUGH THE EXACT SOUTHWARD
EXTENT IS UNCLEAR DUE TO DIFFERING SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS.
DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES, ALL MODELS AGREE THAT ANOTHER ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THIS COLD FRONT
AGAIN, WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURRING ALONG
THE INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AXIS. CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT LOCATION
OF THIS ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY LOW (LESS THAN 30%), BUT
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (70%) THAT WHEREVER THIS MOIST UPSLOPE
UNSTABLE AXIS IS LOCATED LATE THURSDAY, THERE WILL BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING THUNDERSTORMS AS AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND THEN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AS THEY MOVE SOUTHWARD. ONCE AGAIN THESE STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY RESULT
IN LOCALIZED WATER ISSUES AS OUR NEXT UPPER WAVE EXITS THE
ROCKIES AND MOVES INTO THE WEST CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. BASED ON
THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS, THIS AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR OR
SOUTH OF THE OKLAHOMA BORDER THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE FURTHER NORTH.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS A
WESTERLY MEAN FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS, AND SEVERAL UPPER TROUGHS
EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND MOVE INTO THE
PLAINS. LATE DAY CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF COLORADO
WILL MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS. WE WILL BE MONITORING THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A FEW OF
THESE STORMS THIS WEEKEND GIVEN IMPROVING SHEAR AND INSTABILITY.
IN ADDITION TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED. BELOW
NORMAL 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM THE ECMWF/NAEFS ALONG WITH ECMWF
EFI/SOT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE ADVERTISED COOL DOWN IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST, WITH HIGHS 15 TO NEAR 20 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
OVER THE WEEKEND, AS THE WESTERLY FLOW IMPROVES, TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY WARM, RETURNING TO THE 90S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OVER THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY), WITH TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE COLD
FRONT CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER EAST OF MEADE AND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS,
WHERE THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS LAST, HIGHS TODAY WILL AGAIN
CLIMB TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO AROUND 105
ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. BARBER COUNTY AND LOCATIONS SOUTH
AND EAST WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT LONG ENOUGH FOR HEAT
INDEX VALUES TO CLIMB TO AROUND 105 SO AS A RESULT WILL ISSUE A
HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR BARBER COUNTY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS (<20%) WILL ACCOMPANY A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AS IT CROSSES SOUTHWEST KANSAS
OVERNIGHT. BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 9000
FEET AGL OVERNIGHT. AS THIS BOUNDARY PASSES THE SOUTHERLY WINDS
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGHER WIND SPEEDS IS POSSIBLE
IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THIS BOUNDARY PASSAGE. THIS INITIAL
BOUNDARY PASSAGE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT CROSSING
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY. AS THIS COLD FRONT PASSES
DURING THE DAY THE NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEAST BUT
REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. CEILINGS OF 6000 TO 10000
FEET AGL ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND AS SCATTERED LATE DAY STORMS DEVELOP. CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z TODAY WITH BETTER CHANCES
OCCURRING AFTER 00Z THURSDAY, MAINLY IN THE LIBERAL, DODGE CITY,
AND GARDEN CITY AREAS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ090.
DISCUSSION...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page