436
FXUS63 KDDC 260446
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1146 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WEST AND SOUTH
OF THE DODGE CITY AREA.
- WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS EVENT MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING OR WATER ISSUES.
- FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS
UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2025
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL ALSO SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS
CANADA AND MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES AND A DAILY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
EARLY MONDAY MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA, WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ESTABLISHED ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS, A NORTHWEST FLOW WAS PRESENT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES, WITH SUBTLE UPPER WAVES EMBEDDED
WITHIN IT. AT THE SURFACE A COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS
LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, LEADING TO A COOL, MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THIS MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
WEST OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND 900-850MB FRONTOGENESIS APPEARS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LINGERING RAINFALL EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.
USING THIS LOW LEVEL FORCING MENTIONED ABOVE AS A GUIDE FOR
STEADIER RAINFALL TONIGHT AS OUR NEXT SUBTLE WAVE APPROACHES
WESTERN KANSAS, IT APPEARS OUR AREA OF INTEREST FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER AND WEST OF
A MEADE NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. THIS AREA IS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED
BY THE ECMWF EXTREME FORECAST INDEX AND SHIFT OF TAILS FOR QPF
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (60-80%) IN FOCUSING
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL IN THIS AREA. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES GREATER THAN THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
FOR THE DODGE CITY AREA AM IN AGREEMENT WITH THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER THAT LOCALIZED RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA AS THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM PASS. THIS AREA WHERE THE HEAVIER RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT HOWEVER APPEARS THAT IT DID NOT RECEIVE MUCH
PRECIPITATION FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. AS A RESULT OF THESE
LOWER RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM LAST NIGHT, A FLOOD WATCH WILL
NOT BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT. LOWER RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT. FOR AREAS EAST OF MEADE...THIS
MAY END UP BEING AN AREA OF GREATER CONCERN EVEN WITH THESE
LOWER AMOUNTS GIVEN THE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED SUNDAY
NIGHT, WHERE 3 TO 5 INCHES FELL.
THE NEXT ROUND OF HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL TARGET SOUTHWEST KANSAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOW THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FALLING SURFACE PRESSURES ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AS A
SURFACE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
FORCING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS
SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS COMBINATION WILL
PROVIDE OUR NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION (+70%).
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE NEAR WESTERN KANSAS, THE WINDS ALOFT MAY
NOT BE STRONG, BUT IMPROVING SHEAR IN THE LOWER LEVELS NEAR THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY AND IMPROVING INSTABILITY LATE DAY, AS
ADVERTISED BY THE SREF, SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER LATE
DAY/EVENING. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. IN
ADDITION WE CAN EXPECTED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN THE
ONGOING HIGH PWAT VALUES OVER WESTERN KANSAS. THE AREA OF
GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE WARM FRONT GIVEN THE
TRACK THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND 850MB WARM
AIR ADVECTION NEAR THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET. ALSO GIVEN HIGH
PWATS AND THE SREF MAXIMUM 12-HOUR PRECIPITATION FORECAST IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES, WE WILL BE MONITORING THIS EVENT FOR
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING OR WATER ISSUES. THE WPC HAS ALREADY
OUTLINED THIS AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE LAST WEEK OF AUGUST.
A COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLOUDY AND
COOL CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY. AREAS THAT DO NOT SEE SUNSHINE ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH WARMER
THAN 70 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMER, BUT A
NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SURGE
BACK SOUTH, REPLACING THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 70S LATE WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2025
LOW CEILINGS HAVE REDUCED DDC, LBL, AND GCK TO MVFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS. FOG/MIST IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ACROSS THOSE 3 TERMINALS. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN WHERE THE
DENSEST FOG WILL SET. ENSEMBLES HAVE A 30% CHANCE FOR VISIBILITIES TO
DROP BELOW 1SM. INTO THE AFTERNOON CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AND
THE FOG/MIST DISSIPATES. A PRIMARILY LIGHT (<10 KTS) SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND IS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BURGERT
AVIATION...KBJ
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