260
FXUS63 KDDC 261739
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1239 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG AND LOW STRATUS MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES SIGNIFICANTLY THIS
MORNING.
- WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS EVENT MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING OR WATER ISSUES.
- FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS
UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2025
THE UPPER-LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WITH A
ROBUST HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER TEXAS AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE, A SPREAD OUT HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS DOMINATING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS IS HELPING TO
PROVIDE THE FORECAST AREA WITH A WEAK (5-15 MPH) SE WIND. FORECASTS
THAT PLACED SHOWERS IN LIBERAL TONIGHT HAS YET TO MATERIALIZE WITH
THE SHOWERS ONLY EXTENDING INTO THE OK PANHANDLE. THERE REMAINS
AROUND A 50% CHANCE VIA ENSEMBLES FOR THE AXIS OF LIBERAL TO ELKHART
TO SEE VERY LIGHT SHOWERS, BUT THOSE SAME ENSEMBLES HAVE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.01-0.05". OUTSIDE OF THAT, SW KANSAS IS EXPECTED
TO BE WITHOUT PRECIPITATION TUESDAY.
THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST FOCUS IS CENTERED AROUND THE FOG/LOW STRATUS
CONCERNS THIS MORNING. ALL OF SW KANSAS EXCEPT AROUND PRATT AND
MEDICINE LODGE IS EXPERIENCING ONE OF THOSE TWO WEATHER
PHENOMENONS. ENSEMBLES KEEP WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES AT AROUND 2-3
MILES, BUT VERY ISOLATED AREAS MAY SEE A DROP BELOW ONE MILE
ESPECIALLY UP NEAR HAYS. CURRENTLY A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOT
ISSUED, BUT MAY BE NEEDED IF FOG/LOW STRATUS INTENSIFIES MORE THAN
EXPECTED. REGARDLESS, MOST OF THE FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL ERODE AFTER
SUNRISE WITH MOST OF IT CLEARED BY NOON. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL LIKELY
BE HELD DOWN BY THE CLOUD COVER WITH THE CLEAR AREAS SEEING HIGHS
CLOSE TO 80S WITH THE MORE STUBBORN AREAS OF CLOUDINESS IN THE MID-
60S. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A FLIP OF TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
COMPARED TO TUESDAY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OUT WEST AND THE
COOLEST TOWARDS CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS IS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL SHOWERS
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. CAMS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A LINE OF STORMS IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY AROUND 6AM-NOON. ENSEMBLES
HAVE CHANCES ABOVE 75% FOR NEARLY ALL OF SW KANSAS. HOWEVER
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL WITH ONLY THE FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES AT EVEN ODDS OR BETTER FOR AT LEAST 0.5".
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS ONCE AGAIN BEING MONITORED FOR SHOWERS. MODEL
SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE HEAVILY WITH THIS ROUND OF RAIN.
ENSEMBLES HAVE THE BEST CHANCE PLACED EAST OF HIGHWAY 283. IF THE
LINE OF STORMS DEVELOP IN A NORTH/SOUTH AXIS, THEN ACCUMULATIONS
WILL AGAIN BE UP TO AROUND 0.5". IF THE LINE OF STORMS IS ORIENTED
EAST/WEST, THEN THE STORMS WILL HAVE A TRAINING EFFECT OVER A
LOCALIZED AREA AND WILL CREATE FLOODING CONCERNS. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS TO GIVE PAUSE REGARDING WHERE THE MOST INTENSE RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR.
THE REST OF THE WEEK HAS HIGHS IN THE 70S FORECAST. THIS WEEKEND
COULD SEE A COUPLE MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, BUT ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS THAT FAR OUT THAT ANY SPECIFICS GIVEN ARE TOO
FLUID TO HOLD MUCH WEIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2025
LIFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LIBERAL AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL DECREASE 2000 AND 4000 FEET AGL AFTER 21Z TODAY. CEILINGS
WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TO 1000 FEET OR BELOW AFTER 05Z WEDNESDAY
AS A MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. AREAS
OF FOG ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS CEILINGS LOWER WITH VISIBILITIES
POTENTIALLY AS LOW AS 1 MILE AT TIMES. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
CROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST OPPORTUNITY
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY IN THE
GARDEN CITY AND LIBERAL AREAS. DODGE CITY AND HAYS HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR STORMS BETWEEN 09Z AND 18Z WEDNESDAY.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...BURGERT
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