966
FXUS63 KDDC 262018
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
318 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS EVENT MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING OR WATER ISSUES.
- FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS THE UPCOMING WEEKEND (25 TO 45% CHANCE EACH DAY).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2025
EARLIER THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED OVER EASTERN KANSAS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED IN EASTERN COLORADO. ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
TODAY MOISTURE AND LIFT WAS PRESENT AT THE 850-700MB LEVELS
BASED ON THE LATEST CAMS. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY AND THE
ASSOCIATED ENHANCED FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE EXITS THE ROCKIES AND MOVES INTO THE WEST CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. AS THIS UPPER WAVE ENCOUNTERS THE ENHANCED FORCING
ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
THEN SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THESE STORMS MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OUR FOCUS WILL SHIFT BACK TO NORTHEAST
COLORADO WHERE ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL BE EXITING THE ROCKIES
AND MOVING OUT INTO THE PLAINS. THESE DEVELOPING STORMS WILL
ALSO TRACK EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT GIVEN WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IMPROVING FROM A DEVELOPING LOW
LEVEL JET AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
MAIN HAZARDS FROM THESE STORMS LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN THE IMPROVING
MOISTURE OCCURRING FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET AND ALREADY HIGH PWAT
VALUES. THE ECMWF EXTREME FORECAST INDEX OF 0.6 TO 0.7 ALSO
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH CURRENTLY
HIGHLIGHTS THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND CENTRAL KANSAS. THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER ALREADY HAS SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WHICH
APPEARS REASONABLE BUT IT IS INTERESTING TO SEE THAT THE LATEST
CAMS ARE INDICATING THE BEST AREA FOR THE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS
NOW WILL BE OCCUR JUST EAST OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA. AS A
RESULT WILL NOT ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME BUT HAVE
DECIDED TO WAIT AND SEE IF LATER MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE SAME
TREND.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 70 TO THE UPPER
80S. THE RAINFALL THAT IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS,
SIMILAR TO EARLIER THIS WEEK. HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY TRENDING
TOWARDS THE 10TH TO 25TH PERCENTILE (AROUND 70 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT), THOUGH THIS MIGHT BE TOO WARM IF RAIN CONTINUES
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. IN CONTRAST NEAR AND WEST OF THE WARM
FRONT IN WESTERN KANSAS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER WITH
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN A FEW
LOCATIONS IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS, BASED ON 850MB
TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND AFTERNOON SUN.
WHAT WARMING TREND THAT DOES OCCUR WEDNESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL END BY THURSDAY AS THE NORTHERN UPPER
TROUGH PASSES AND A NEW SHOT OF COOLER AIR RETURNS. 850MB
FORECAST TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES FROM THE EPS RANGE FROM 5 TO 10C
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY ON 00Z THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND SATURDAY.
THE WEEKEND OUTLOOK IS NOW SHAPING UP TO BE MORE OF THE SAME.
WET AND UNSEASONABLY COOL. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WET WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, ANOTHER NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. AS IT DOES, IT WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS, ALONG WITH
KEEPING TEMPERATURES UNSEASONABLY COOL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2025
LIFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LIBERAL AREA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL DECREASE 2000 AND 4000 FEET AGL AFTER 21Z TODAY. CEILINGS
WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TO 1000 FEET OR BELOW AFTER 05Z WEDNESDAY
AS A MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. AREAS
OF FOG ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS CEILINGS LOWER WITH VISIBILITIES
POTENTIALLY AS LOW AS 1 MILE AT TIMES. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
CROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST OPPORTUNITY
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY IN THE
GARDEN CITY AND LIBERAL AREAS. DODGE CITY AND HAYS HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR STORMS BETWEEN 09Z AND 18Z WEDNESDAY.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT
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