780
FXUS63 KDDC 270838
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
338 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS EVENT MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING OR WATER ISSUES.
- FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES (IN THE 70S) EXPECTED LATE WEEK AND
OVER THE WEEKEND ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF WET WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS THE UPCOMING WEEKEND (25 TO 45% CHANCE EACH
DAY).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2025
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER TEXAS AND A DEEP TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. CURRENTLY SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS HAVE
RIDDEN NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER WITH SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE
THREE WESTERN-MOST COUNTIES. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK BOUNDARY IN
EASTERN COLORADO THAT THE SHOWERS MAY HAVE FIRED ALONG. CAMS HAVE
BEEN PERSISTENT WITH CONVECTION CONTINUING ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT VARYING WILDLY IN LOCATION AND EXPANSE. OLDER
MODEL RUNS, AS WELL AS THE LATEST NAMNST RUN, HAS HAD MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION TRACKING ACROSS MORE CENTRAL KS. NEWER RUNS HAS MORE
OF THE CONVECTION RIDING NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER. SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT
MAY TAKE PLACE INTO THE MORNING HOURS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME
FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY DEVELOP THIS MORNING, BUT ENSEMBLE CHANCES ARE
VERY ISOLATED. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S OUT EAST AND 80S
OUT WEST.
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST HAS BECOME THE PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. CAMS HAVE HELD FIRM IN A
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS FROM AROUND SCOTT CITY DOWN TO MEDICINE LODGE.
SLIGHT DISCREPANCIES EXIST IN EXACT PLACEMENT, BUT THE OVERALL SIGNAL
HAS BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. WITH LITTLE IN THE
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT OF DEEP AND STRONG CONVECTION, THE ONLY THREAT OF
THESE STORMS IS LIGHTNING AND RAINFALL. CURRENTLY IT CONTINUES TO
LOOK LIKE THE LINE WILL MOVE PERPENDICULAR ENOUGH TO THE AXIS OF
PRECIPITATION THAT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL NOT CONTINUE REDEVELOPING
OVER A CONSTANT AREA ELIMINATING MUCH OF THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
FLOODING CHANCES. THAT SAID, SOME AREAS COULD SEE STORMS TRAIN
OVERHEAD AND PRODUCE POCKETS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. MOST OF THE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR FLOODING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES INCLUDING HAYS AND
PRATT. ENSEMBLES HAVE A REASONABLE RANGE OF AROUND 1-1.5" IN THE
EAST. THE WPC HAS MOST OF SW KANSAS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AT >15% CHANCE TO SEE FLASH FLOOD CONDITIONS. AGAIN THIS
THREAT, IF IT OCCURS, WOULD BE IN VERY LOCAL/ISOLATED POCKETS.
OUTSIDE OF THE FORECASTS FOCUS ON RAINFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE WEEK
AHEAD IS EXPECTED TO BE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE 70S INTO
NEXT WEEK. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE
POSSIBLE. ENSEMBLES HAVE FRIDAY, SATURDAY, AND SUNDAY NIGHTS ALL
WITH AREAS ABOVE A 25% CHANCE FOR RAIN. MOST OF THIS IS WEST OF
HIGHWAY 283 AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A SEVERE THREAT IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED AND RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH AS TO NOT
EVOKE APPARENT FLOODING CONCERNS THIS FAR OUT. SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ON MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS REGARDING AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS,
BUT ENSEMBLES HAVE TOTALS FOR THE 3 DAYS WELL BELOW ONE INCH. THE
MAJORITY OF THIS RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE FIRST ROUND LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2025
LOWERED FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES OVER THIS TAF
PERIOD. LOW CEILINGS HAVE CONTINUED NEAR LBL LOWERING FLIGHT
CONDITIONS. FROM AROUND 10-19Z SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE CWA AFFECTING HYS, DDC, AND GCK WITH SHRA, VCTS, AND LOWER
CEILINGS. LBL IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO STAY DRY ALTHOUGH SOME
DISCREPANCY ON RECENT CAM RUNS HAVE INSTILLED UNCERTAINTY.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WITH UP TO
25 KT GUSTS AROUND 20Z.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...KBJ
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