472
FXUS63 KDDC 271747
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1247 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS EVENT MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING OR WATER ISSUES.
- FALL LIKE TEMPERATURES (IN THE 70S) EXPECTED LATE WEEK AND
OVER THE WEEKEND ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF WET WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS THE UPCOMING WEEKEND (25 TO 45% CHANCE EACH
DAY).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2025
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER TEXAS AND A DEEP TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. CURRENTLY SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS HAVE
RIDDEN NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER WITH SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE
THREE WESTERN-MOST COUNTIES. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK BOUNDARY IN
EASTERN COLORADO THAT THE SHOWERS MAY HAVE FIRED ALONG. CAMS HAVE
BEEN PERSISTENT WITH CONVECTION CONTINUING ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT VARYING WILDLY IN LOCATION AND EXPANSE. OLDER
MODEL RUNS, AS WELL AS THE LATEST NAMNST RUN, HAS HAD MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION TRACKING ACROSS MORE CENTRAL KS. NEWER RUNS HAS MORE
OF THE CONVECTION RIDING NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER. SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT
MAY TAKE PLACE INTO THE MORNING HOURS INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME
FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY DEVELOP THIS MORNING, BUT ENSEMBLE CHANCES ARE
VERY ISOLATED. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S OUT EAST AND 80S
OUT WEST.
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST HAS BECOME THE PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. CAMS HAVE HELD FIRM IN A
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS FROM AROUND SCOTT CITY DOWN TO MEDICINE LODGE.
SLIGHT DISCREPANCIES EXIST IN EXACT PLACEMENT, BUT THE OVERALL SIGNAL
HAS BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. WITH LITTLE IN THE
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT OF DEEP AND STRONG CONVECTION, THE ONLY THREAT OF
THESE STORMS IS LIGHTNING AND RAINFALL. CURRENTLY IT CONTINUES TO
LOOK LIKE THE LINE WILL MOVE PERPENDICULAR ENOUGH TO THE AXIS OF
PRECIPITATION THAT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL NOT CONTINUE REDEVELOPING
OVER A CONSTANT AREA ELIMINATING MUCH OF THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
FLOODING CHANCES. THAT SAID, SOME AREAS COULD SEE STORMS TRAIN
OVERHEAD AND PRODUCE POCKETS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. MOST OF THE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR FLOODING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES INCLUDING HAYS AND
PRATT. ENSEMBLES HAVE A REASONABLE RANGE OF AROUND 1-1.5" IN THE
EAST. THE WPC HAS MOST OF SW KANSAS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AT >15% CHANCE TO SEE FLASH FLOOD CONDITIONS. AGAIN THIS
THREAT, IF IT OCCURS, WOULD BE IN VERY LOCAL/ISOLATED POCKETS.
OUTSIDE OF THE FORECASTS FOCUS ON RAINFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE WEEK
AHEAD IS EXPECTED TO BE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE 70S INTO
NEXT WEEK. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE
POSSIBLE. ENSEMBLES HAVE FRIDAY, SATURDAY, AND SUNDAY NIGHTS ALL
WITH AREAS ABOVE A 25% CHANCE FOR RAIN. MOST OF THIS IS WEST OF
HIGHWAY 283 AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A SEVERE THREAT IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED AND RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH AS TO NOT
EVOKE APPARENT FLOODING CONCERNS THIS FAR OUT. SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ON MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS REGARDING AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS,
BUT ENSEMBLES HAVE TOTALS FOR THE 3 DAYS WELL BELOW ONE INCH. THE
MAJORITY OF THIS RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE FIRST ROUND LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2025
IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HAYS AREA WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE INTO THE
MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z THURSDAY. ELSEWHERE LOW CEILINGS
BETWEEN 1500 AND 3000 FEET AGL WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 21Z TODAY. THESE IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE TODAY AND
EARLY TONIGHT WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE AS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AFTER 02Z THURSDAY. A CLUSTER
OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CROSS WESTERN KANSAS BETWEEN 03Z
AND 12Z THURSDAY AND AS THESE STORMS PASS CEILINGS WILL FALL
BELOW 500 FEET AGL AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH.
AREAS OF FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. THE HREF AND LAMP MODELS SUGGEST A 40 TO 60 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR VISIBILITIES TO FALL BELOW 2 MILES AT TIMES BETWEEN
09Z AND 15Z SUNDAY.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...BURGERT
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