330
FXUS63 KDDC 281957
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
257 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT (60-70% WEST OF HIGHWAY 83). A FEW
STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG, GUSTY WINDS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
- THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS LABOR DAY
WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT WE
WILL BE MONITORING ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR
RETURNING TO WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE LAST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS THIS MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES, WITH ONE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. A SECOND, MORE
SUBTLE, UPPER WAVE WAS OBSERVED OVER NORTHWEST COLORADO AND
WYOMING. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING AND 12Z 850MB
ANALYSIS INDICATED A NORTH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ADVECTING COOLER
AIR INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A
COLD FRONT TRACKS SOUTHWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA. SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATE THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT AS
THE NORTHERN COLORADO SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES WESTERN
KANSAS. WHAT STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO TONIGHT FROM THIS APPROACHING WAVE ARE EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST, WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY AS THIS NEXT UPPER WAVE
PASSES WESTERN KANSAS.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, LEADING TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES AN
EASTERN COLORADO SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES TO NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER LATE IN THE DAY. GIVEN THE PRE EXISTING MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY AND IMPROVING INSTABILITY LATE DAY IT
APPEARS THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY (60%) BY LATE DAY NEAR
THIS BOUNDARY. THIS CONVECTION WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. IMPROVING SHEAR AND MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS UPPER WAVE SUGGESTS THAT ANY STORMS
DEVELOPING LATE DAY/EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG, GUSTY WINDS. THE SEVERE RISK FROM THESE STORMS
WILL DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT.
CURRENTLY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER COVERING PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN KANSAS.
LOCATIONS AS FAR EAST AS GARDEN CITY AND LIBERAL HOWEVER SHOULD
MONITOR THIS EVENT CLOSELY, AS SOME CAMS INDICATE A MORE
EASTERLY SOLUTION FOR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LATE IN THE DAY,
COUPLED WITH A CLEARING TREND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS COULD
RESULT IN THE HAIL AND STRONG WIND RISK EXTENDING SLIGHTLY
FURTHER EAST THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED BY SPC. THESE AREAS WILL
ALSO NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
GIVEN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING MAY ONCE AGAIN BE AN ISSUE FOR SOME AREAS ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES,
EMBEDDED IN A DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW EXIT THE ROCKIES AND
TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL
REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL DUE TO PERSISTENT EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS
IN THE LOWER LEVELS WHICH WILL BE ADVECTING COOLER AIR FROM THIS
COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS THESE COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL OFFSET THE WARMING EFFECTS OF NORTHWEST
DOWNSLOPE FLOW SO BY THE START OF THE WORK WEEK THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE 80S, PARTICULARLY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 283.
THE EXPECTED EARLY WORK WEEK WARMUP APPEARS TO BE BRIEF AS THE
MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS (60%) INDICATE ANOTHER SURGE OF
COOLER AIR TARGETING WESTERN KANSAS LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WHILE THE UPPER
RIDGE RETROGRADES FURTHER WEST TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. THE
PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR OUT IS HOW FAR WEST THIS UPPER
RIDGE WILL SHIFT AND AS A RESULT HOW MUCH OF THIS NEXT SHOT OF
COLDER AIR WILL PENETRATE INTO WESTERN KANSAS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
BUFR SOUNDINGS AND ENSEMBLE CEILING PROBABILITIES SUGGEST A
BRIEF CLEARING TREND THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, SCATTERED TO
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS (500-2000 FT AGL) ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. AFTER 00Z FRIDAY CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER
TO 500 FT OR LESS AS LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, WITH ENSEMBLE CHANCES FOR THESE LOW
CEILINGS EXCEEDING 60%. AREAS OF FOG ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM 02Z
THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z FRIDAY WITH VISIBILITIES RANGING FROM 1 TO
3 MILES AT TIMES.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT
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