872
FXUS63 KDDC 291719
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1219 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MORNING STORMS AND PATCHY FOG
- ANOTHER CHANCE (AS HIGH AS 80% ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER)
TONIGHT
- CONTINUED STORMY OVER THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. THE PWAT ON YESTERDAY'S
KDDC RAOB WAS 1.43". SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE MID 60S
FOR THE FA. AS A RESULT, SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MID MORNING. IN ADDITION, WATCHING SOME STORMS OVER EASTERN
COLORADO THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY MAY DRIFT NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER LATER THIS MORNING AND IT MAY RAIN FOR A FEW FAR WESTERN COUNTIES
IF THIS ACTIVITY SURVIVES. OTHERWISE, THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH AND ALL THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD
TO ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY OF EVENING STORMS. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS
(~80%) FOR THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. POPS GET GRADUALLY
SMALLER AS YOU HEAD EAST ACROSS THE FA. THERE IS SOME MODERATE INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR, SO CANNOT RULED OUT A STRONG STORM THREAT THIS EVENING.
THE MAIN THREATS ARE MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND AND HAIL REPORTS, AS
WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE, HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 70S
AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS AND THE MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND
OF STORMY WEATHER RIGHT IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND. THE NBM POPS LOOK
FINE FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH VALUES
MAINLY IN THE 70S. LOW 80S CANNOT BE RULED OUT SUNDAY EITHER.
BY MONDAY, WE ENTER A DRIER NW TO N UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT THE NOTION OF A DRIER FORECAST. THIS DOES COME INTO CONFLICT
THROUGH WITH SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS WELL AS THEIR ENSEMBLE
COUNTERPARTS. SOME OF THIS DATA CONTINUES TO INDICATE STORM CHANCES
NEXT WEEK. WE WILL MONITOR FOR A CLEAR TRENDS IN FUTURE RUNS. OTHERWISE,
HIGHS WILL REMAIN PLEASANT WITH MAINLY 70S (A FEW 80S POSSIBLE) AND
LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WAS GRADUALLY ERODING THIS
MORNING. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
AND WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CROSSES THE WEST CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT THE GARDEN CITY AND LIBERAL
AREAS BETWEEN 02Z AND 08Z SATURDAY, AND THE DODGE CITY AND HAYS
AREAS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SATURDAY. GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS TONIGHT IN THE
GARDEN CITY AND LIBERAL AREAS. FOLLOWING THESE THUNDERSTORMS, AN
AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. GUIDANCE AND HREF INDICATE A GREATER THAN 75%
CHANCE OF CEILINGS FALLING BELOW 3000 FEET AGL AND A 40 TO 50%
CHANCE OF CEILINGS DROPPING BELOW 1000 FEET AGL BETWEEN 09Z AND
15Z SATURDAY. PREVAILING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL
BE SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SUGDEN
AVIATION...BURGERT
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