926
FXUS63 KDDC 300506
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1206 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TONIGHT (AS HIGH AS 80% ALONG THE
COLORADO BORDER). LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN
HAZARD BUT A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS BEFORE SUNSET WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
- WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING RAINFALL POSSIBLE SATURDAY (50-70%).
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WHICH MAY RESULT IN PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. ISOLATED FLASH
FLOOD POSSIBLE.
- TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 80S EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
A 500MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON IS
WEAKENING AS SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES AROUND ITS NORTHERN
PERIPHERY AND PROPAGATES EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. AT THE SURFACE, A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH A MOIST SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE
FLOW OCCURRING IN THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.PWATS
TODAY RANGED FROM 1.4 TO 1.6 INCHES WHICH ARE AT OR ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP LATE TODAY ALONG THE
EASTERN COLORADO SURFACE BOUNDARY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AS IT CROSSES THE ROCKIES AND MOVES INTO THE WEST
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. CAMS FROM EARLIER TODAY SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT
IN DEVELOPING SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
COLORADO SURFACE BOUNDARY, THEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS THEY
MOVE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY EARLY EVENING.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE EVENING HOWEVER A FEW
STORMS BEFORE SUNSET ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS,
PARTICULARLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83, COULD PRODUCE QUARTER SIZE HAIL
OR LARGER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH, GIVEN 0-6KM SHEAR OF 40
KNOTS AND MUCAPES EXCEEDING 1500 J/KG. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE FROM THESE STORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BECOME THE PRIMARY HAZARD AFTER SUNSET.
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY THIS
WEEKEND AS A NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTH FROM
CANADA AND DEEPENS OVER NEBRASKA, LEADING TO A NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FOR SATURDAY, A SURFACE
BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS WESTERN KANSAS LATE
DAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR ONGOING ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS AND ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SOUTHEAST MOVING BOUNDARY.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS ON
SATURDAY GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH REGARDING THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR PRECIPITATION
EARLY THIS WEEKEND HOWEVER THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO DIFFERING SOLUTIONS AMONG THE
LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS. CURRENTLY CONFIDENCE IN THIS QUICKER
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT CROSSING SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE SATURDAY
IS ONLY 40%..AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE CURRENT
SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE DEPICTED BY THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND
EXTENDING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
SEVERE WEATHER RISK WITH THESE STORMS SATURDAY APPEARS LOW, BUT
THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS HIGH (>70%) GIVEN THE
HIGH PWATS. BASED ON THIS PLUS THIS ROUND OF RAIN WILL BE
FALLING OVER AN AREA THAT HAS ALREADY EXPERIENCED RAINFALL FROM
THE PREVIOUS EVENT THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING ON SATURDAY. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED
A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY EAST
OF HIGHWAY 283.
THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS
OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, WITH A DEVELOPING NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE
FLOW, THIS COOLER AIR MASS WILL START TO BE MODIFIED BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE 70S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE 80S DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL GIVE WAY
TO ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR MID WEEK. THIS WILL OCCUR AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW DROPS SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS ARE
CURRENTLY STRUGGLING WITH THE EXACT LOCATION THIS AMPLIFICATION
OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL OCCUR
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH IS NOT UNUSUAL. HOWEVER, THIS UNCERTAINTY
WILL DRAMATICALLY INFLUENCE HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL INVADE
SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY THURSDAY. THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE WITH
HIGHS AROUND 70 APPEARS TO BE A REASONABLE COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE TWO POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT 50% OF
THE ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS SUGGEST HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE
RANGE, WHILE WARMER ENSEMBLE CLUSTER SOLUTIONS SUPPORT HIGHS OF
70 TO 75. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ALONG WITH THE -0.8 TO -0.9 ECMWF EFI IF I WAS FAVOR
ONE DIRECTION THEN IT WOULD BE TOWARDS THE COLDER TEMPERATURES
ON THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT, POTENTIALLY
AFFECTING THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THROUGH DAYBREAK.
ADDITIONALLY, LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITHIN A
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASED RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LATER THIS MORNING, RESULTING IN POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS IN VICINITY
OF ALL TAF SITES INITIALLY, THEN EVENTUALLY POSSIBLE IFR CIGS
TOWARD DAYBREAK. AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE,
INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VSBYS AND ISOLATED IFR VSBYS
GENERALLY AFTER 10-12Z. LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL BECOME MORE VARIABLE GENERALLY AFTER 13-15Z AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW PUSHES EAST
THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BURGERT
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
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