653
FXUS63 KDDC 311641
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1141 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THIS NEXT WEEK.
- DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MOST OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK.
- A COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ON THIS BOUNDARY.
- THURSDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY AT MIDNIGHT CONFIRMED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES WERE CONTINUING TO MOVE
SOUTH, AND MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY BY SUNRISE SUNDAY.
WIDESPREAD STRATUS WILL REMAIN TONIGHT WELL INTO SUNDAY MORNING,
AND WITH A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER, AREAS OF DRIZZLE, MIST OR
FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES. DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED,
BUT WITH SUCH A WET ENVIRONMENT THIS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.
LIMITED WARMING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY, AS NORTHWEST MIDLEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED, NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER
ARIZONA. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO BE DISSOLVED IN THE 10 AM
THROUGH NOON TIME RANGE, WITH A LIGHT NORTH WIND PREVAILING.
THE ADDED SUNSHINE AND A NET WARMING OF +3C AT 850 MB PER
12Z NAM/GFS WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOWER
80S FOR A FEW HOURS. THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE LAST DAY OF AUGUST, AND WITH WIDESPREAD MOIST SOILS,
STANDING WATER AND UNSEASONABLY GREEN VEGETATION, EXPECT
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE COOLEST
GUIDANCE. FORCING FOR CONVECTION APPEARS QUITE LIMITED TODAY,
ALTHOUGH MOST CAMS AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST ANY ISOLATED
CONVECTION WOULD FAVOR THE SOUTHEAST/EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
GLOBAL MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SHOW A STAGNANT UPPER AIR
PATTERN PERSISTING OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THIS UPCOMING
WEEK, WITH A STRONG MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WEST, AND
PRONOUNCED TROUGHING CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE
RESULTING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP MOST OF SW KS DRY FOR
MOST OF THE UPCOMING FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. THIS IS ALSO A
COOL PATTERN FOR THE PLAINS, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW AND PERIODIC COLD FRONTS PREVENTING ANY HEAT FROM
RETURNING. THE STRONGEST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS SCHEDULED FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT, AND NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THIS
COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER THAN NBM GUIDANCE. THIS
BOUNDARY MAY BE THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS AT
LEAST CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS, BUT COVERAGE OVER WESTERN KANSAS
IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN, AND NBM POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE
NECESSARILY LOW. THE COOLEST DAY OF THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO
BE THURSDAY, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES LIMITED TO THE 70S IN
THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
MID CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AND LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
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