931
FXUS63 KDDC 100530
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1230 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL, WEST OF US 283, TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- DRY QUIET WARM AFTERNOONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEK,
TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.
- ELEVATED TO STRONG SOUTH WINDS EACH AFTERNOON THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
- NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
SCHEDULED FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMED A MAINLY CLEAR SKY OVER SW KS AT
MIDDAY, WITH MESOANALYSIS SHOWING INSTABILITY MOUNTING ACROSS
THE WESTERN ZONES. SURFACE ANALYSIS OUTLINED LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS AT MIDDAY, BUT WINDS WILL TREND SELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
IN RESPONSE TO LEE TROUGHING IN EASTERN COLORADO. 12Z ARW/FV3
AND GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG/WEST OF
US 83 DURING THE 4-7 PM TIME FRAME. FORCING IS NOT AS CLEAR AS
MONDAY, BUT CERTAINLY MORE SUBTLE SHORTWAVES WILL BE ROUNDING
THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES, AND INTERACTING WITH THE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO THIS EVENING. THE MOST FAVORED AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING APPEARS TO BE THE NORTHWEST ZONES,
SYRACUSE TO SCOTT CITY, WHERE HAIL OF 1-2 INCHES IN DIAMETER IS
LIKELY FROM ANY SUSTAINED, DISCRETE CONVECTION THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SPC INCREASED SEVERE HAIL PROBABILITY IN THESE ZONES
ON THE 1630Z UPDATE. 12Z NAM FORECASTS VERY HIGH INSTABILITY
WITH CAPE AS HIGH AS 4000 J/KG; AS SUCH, HAIL IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER IS POSSIBLE FROM SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS.
EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THUNDERSTORMS DEEPER INTO SW KS TONIGHT IS
UNCLEAR. A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET WOULD HELP SUSTAIN ANY
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS, BUT FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE LIMITED TO
NIL WITH BROAD RIDGING AND SLOWLY RISING MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS. THIS
DISPARITY PROBABLY EXPLAINS THE DISAGREEMENT MODELS ARE
DISPLAYING ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TONIGHT. POPS THROUGH TONIGHT
ARE THEREFORE NECESSARILY LOW TO MODEST, EVEN THOUGH SOME
GUIDANCE SUCH AS 12Z NAM SHOW A LARGE MCS ENTERING NORTHERN
ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MODELS SUGGEST WARMING ON WEDNESDAY, WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS RISING
TO NEAR 590 DM, AS THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS MAKES PROGRESS ONTO
THE PLAINS. FOLLOWED THE WARMEST GUIDANCE, WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL IS VERY LOW WEDNESDAY, BUT PROBABLY NOT ZERO, WITH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE/BOUNDARIES AND INSTABILITY PERHAPS GENERATING
AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO AT PEAK HEATING. WITH FORCING VERY
WEAK, MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY, AND THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY.
RIDGE AXIS MOVES AGGRESSIVELY ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY,
DELIVERING A SUNNY, HOT WINDY DAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID SEPTEMBER, BUT CONTINUED STANDING
WATER AND UNSEASONABLY GREEN VEGETATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE WARMEST GUIDANCE. NBM'S FORECAST OF
LOWER 90S APPEARS ON TARGET. NBM'S SOUTH WINDS, HOWEVER, ARE
TOO WEAK FOR THURSDAY, AND PREFER 12Z MAV SHOWING 20-30 MPH,
WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH.
ONCE AGAIN, SUNNY WARM AND WINDY FRIDAY, AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SLOWLY EDGES EAST OF SW KS, FORCED EAST BY A STRONG TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT BASIN. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED TO STRONG,
STRONGER THAN NBM GUIDANCE, WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH, ESPECIALLY
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ALONG THE PREFERRED US 83 CORRIDOR.
EXPECT SW KS TO REMAIN DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT SATURDAY, AS THE
ROCKIES TROUGH EJECTS ONTO THE PLAINS AND INTERACTS WITH AN
EXPECTED DRYLINE. NBM POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY LATE SATURDAY
WERE ACCEPTED, IN AGREEMENT WITH GLOBAL MODELS. SOME SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER MAY OCCUR SATURDAY, IF THE TROUGH'S EJECTION
TIMING REMAINS CONSISTENT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
KDDC RADAR OBSERVATIONS SHOW A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX NORTHWEST OF
GCK, AND THIS COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO ROLL EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BRINGING MVFR/IFR CIGS AND
VIS TO GCK, DDC, AND HYS. LBL COULD BE CLIPPED BY THE SOUTHERN
EDGE, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OUTSIDE OF THE
THUNDERSTORM INFLUENCE OVERNIGHT. SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH
INTO THE 13-16 KT RANGE GUSTING TO 23-26 KTS THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING TO AOA 12 KTS AFTER 00Z.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
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