397
FXUS63 KDDC 100700
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
200 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE
TO ROLL ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT COOLING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE COOLING TEMPERATURES,
WITH THE BEST CHANCE EXISTING SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
07Z RADAR OBSERVATIONS SHOW A LOOSELY ORGANIZED MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER OUR WEST/NORTHWEST ZONES, COURTESY OF AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE CRESTING A RIDGE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. LATEST CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS COMPLEX WILL REMAIN
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE AS IT CONTINUES EAST-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS, BRINGING WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FOR ROUGHLY THE
SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF OUR AREA. PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THIS
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, ALTHOUGH
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY CELLS THAT
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE. ONCE THIS ACTIVITY EXITS STAGE
RIGHT BY MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING, SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL YIELD MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY, SUPPORTING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW
90S. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ALSO UNLIKELY, BUT WITH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND AT LEAST SOME INSTABILITY, A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE, WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE QUIET, WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW/MID 60S.
DAYTIME THURSDAY, SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES AGREE THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL FULLY EJECT ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS AS STRONG, CUT-OFF
TROUGHING SLOWLY ADVANCES TOWARDS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE AND DEVELOPING LEE TROUGHING
IN EASTERN CO WILL PROMOTE A WINDY, HOT THURSDAY, WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS ONCE
AGAIN LOW BUT NOT NONEXISTENT, WITH ANY ACTIVITY FAVORING THE
WEST/NORTHWEST ZONES.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE MIDWEST AND
ADJACENT AREAS WHILE DAMPENING AS IT SUCCUMBS TO THE STRONG
TROUGH UPSTREAM. ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S, FOLLOWED BY A COOLING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND AS 500-MB
HEIGHTS FALL BENEATH THE EASTWARD-TRANSLATING WAVE.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND,
FAVORING SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING, AND NBM
PROBABILITY OF QPF EXCEEDING 0.1" HAS RISEN SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO
THIS TIME YESTERDAY, NOW IN THE 25-50% RANGE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
KDDC RADAR OBSERVATIONS SHOW A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX NORTHWEST OF
GCK, AND THIS COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO ROLL EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BRINGING MVFR/IFR CIGS AND
VIS TO GCK, DDC, AND HYS. LBL COULD BE CLIPPED BY THE SOUTHERN
EDGE, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OUTSIDE OF THE
THUNDERSTORM INFLUENCE OVERNIGHT. SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH
INTO THE 13-16 KT RANGE GUSTING TO 23-26 KTS THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING TO AOA 12 KTS AFTER 00Z.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SPRINGER
AVIATION...SPRINGER
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