303
FXUS63 KDDC 110823
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
323 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY WARM AND HOT TEMPERATURES TODAY
- HEAVY RAINFALL RISK SATURDAY
- MILD WITH LOW STORM CHANCES NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
07Z ANALYSIS SHOWS MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS,
CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO, AND A TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COAST. RESULTING WEATHER AT THE SURFACE TODAY
WILL BE VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS, AND PERHAPS A SLIGHT
DOWNSLOPING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT, WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S. SIMILAR IDEA IS EXPECTED INTO
FRIDAY, WITH PERHAPS MORE OF AN UPTICK OF WINDS THAN THURSDAY.
SATURDAY IS WHEN THE NEXT BEST CHANCE EXISTS FOR APPRECIABLE AND
POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA, AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO EARLY THIS
WEEKEND. CONSENSUS AMONG THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST THE OVERALL
500 MB FLOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS.
NONETHELESS, AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
LOOKING LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND WILL MOVE INTO KANSAS
SATURDAY EVENING. WITH THE EXPECTED WEAKENING 500 MB FLOW OF
AROUND 25-35 KNOTS, AND MEAGER MLCAPES 750-1200 J/KG, NOT
ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER, BUT A FEW STRONGER
ORGANIZED STORMS CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT CLOSER TO THE
COLORADO BORDER. THE BIGGER STORY FROM THE THUNDERSTORM RISK IS
LIKELY HEAVY RAINFALL, LEADING TO SOME ISOLATED FLOODING. PWAT
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 1", WHICH IS AROUND THE 90TH
PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH WEAK OVERALL FLOW, SLOW
MOVING AND/OR TRAINING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WPC HAS A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS RISK AT THIS TIME.
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE CONTINUED STORM CHANCES, MAINLY ACROSS
EASTERN ZONES AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD. INTO NEXT
WEEK, HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY FOR MUCH OF WEEK IN THE
80S, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S. NBM CARRIES
20-35% POPS MID-WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
EXPECTING A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. A COUPLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG
THE KS/OK BORDER, SO THEIR PROGRESSION MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR LBL, BUT OTHER THAN THAT, QUIET THROUGH THE NIGHT. BREEZY
CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE FORECAST INTO THE DAY THURSDAY WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25
KNOTS AT TIMES. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BENNETT
AVIATION...BENNETT
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