319
FXUS63 KDDC 120020
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
720 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF A STORM NEAR COLORADO BORDER TONIGHT
- DRY AND HOT FRIDAY
- STORM CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY EVENING
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
A LEE TROUGH EXISTS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON. A STORM MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HAVE INSERTED LOW POPS MAINLY FOR HAMILTON COUNTY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE FA WILL
REMAIN DRY TONIGHT. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
AND WILL HELP TO KEEP WINDS ELEVATED THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS WILL
LEAD TO VERY MILD LOWS TONIGHT WITH VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
DOWNSLOPE SSW WINDS FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW. THIS WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S. NO STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TOMORROW AS A RIDGE ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE GREATER REGION. LOWS
HEADING TO SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE MILD WITH VALUES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SATURDAY EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL
START TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH
A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY COULD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK OFF STORMS ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS DURING THE EVENING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF A STRONG STORM AS WELL. WIND AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL WOULD BE THE
MAIN THREATS.
STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AS WELL, BUT SHIFTED TO THE EASTERN
ZONES. SOME MINOR GOOD NEWS THOUGH WITH THE STORM CHANCES AROUND,
WE SHOULD SEE COOLER HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH VALUES IN THE 80S.
THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE DRY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS WILL BE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROF
AND ASSOCIATED STORM CHANCES RETURN BY MIDWEEK. HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN
IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
AVIATION WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY QUIET, AS
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER OR IN VICINITY OF DDC, GCK, LBL, OR
HYS WILL BE VERY SMALL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WILL SEE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AS LITTLE CHANGE IS
FORECAST IN THE OVERALL MSLP PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
AND WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL GIVEN THE VERY
WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SUGDEN
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
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