395
FXUS63 KDDC 121611
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1111 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION/KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND WINDY FRIDAY, WITH ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
IN THE 90S.
- CONTINUED WARM AND WINDY SATURDAY.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, WITH STRONG STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG STORMS IS HIGHEST WEST
OF US 283.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER, IN THE 80S, NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
VERY LITTLE CHANGE HAS OCCURRED IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS, A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS
SITUATED OVER THE PLAINS AND A TROUGH OUT WEST. A CONTINUOUS
SLOW PROGRESSION OF THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT TODAY
AND OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WILL PLAY A ROLL IN
SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY, ANOTHER DRY, HOT, AND BREEZY
DAY IS EXPECTED. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER TODAY ON
THE ORDER OF 15-25 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 35 MPH.
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
INTO SATURDAY, TROUGHING BEGINS TO IMPINGE INTO THE PLAINS.
THIS WILL INCREASE HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. AS A FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT, EXPECT STORM CHANCES TO INCREASE ALONG WITH IT. THE
OVERALL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE COMPRISED OF ONLY MODEST 20-30 KNOT
500 MB FLOW, SO OVERALL ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK WILL BE LOW. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR A STRONGER STORM OR TWO WILL BE ALONG THE KS/CO
BORDER INTO THE EVENING, GIVEN THE BEST OVERLAP OF MLCAPE OF
750-1000 J/KG AND FLOW IN THIS AREA. A COUPLE INSTANCES OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND QUARTER-SIZE HAIL COULD OCCUR
INTO THE EVENING IN THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER, THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH STORMS, ESPECIALLY LATE INTO THE EVENING, WILL BE THE
HEAVY RAIN RISK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL INDICATING PWAT
VALUES 1.1-1.4", WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS FOR MID-
SEPTEMBER. GIVEN THIS AND THE WEAKER FLOW, SLOW STORM MOTIONS
AND SOME AREAS OF TRAINING STORMS COULD OCCUR LEADING TO
ISOLATED AREA OF FLOODING. WPC MAINTAINS THE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WEST OF ROUTE 283, WITH A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) STRETCHING EASTWARD TOWARD ROUTE
183.
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES MOVE EASTWARD WITH THE FRONT AND
DEPARTING TROUGH INTO SUNDAY, WITH POPS DIMINISHING SUNDAY
EVENING. SOME LOW POPS (20-30%) REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THIS
UPCOMING WORK WEEK, MOST NOTABLY DURING THE EVENING'S OF TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE SWINGS ARE EXPECTED,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN 50S AND 60S THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
VFR/SKC WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL IMPACT ALL AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
00Z SAT, GUSTING 28-32 KTS. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
AT THE SURFACE TONIGHT, IN RESPONSE TO A LOW LEVEL JET, WITH
850 MB/2K FT AGL WINDS NEAR 40 KTS. INCLUDED LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IN ALL TAFS 03-12Z SAT. S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
AFTER 15Z SAT.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BENNETT
AVIATION...TURNER
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