306
FXUS63 KDDC 130824
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
324 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND STORMS LIKELY THUS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
- MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS FROM YESTERDAY EVENING AND LATEST
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 500 MB TROUGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEVADA
AND WESTERN UTAH, WITH FLOW STRETCHING ALL THE WAY TO THE
U.S./MEXICO BORDER. ITS SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW HAS JUST BEGUN
IMPINGING ON THE HIGH PLAINS AND WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING.
THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE MAJOR PLAYMAKER IN SENSIBLE WEATHER
THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, BRINGING CHANCES FOR
STORMS BOTH DAYS.
TODAY, WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT,
EXPECTING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO INCREASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, MAINLY AFTER 2PM, FIRST DEVELOPING IN WESTERN ZONES.
OVERALL ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO ONLY BE MODEST FOR SEVERE STORM
ACTIVITY WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY LESS THAN 1,000 J/KG. ANY CHANCE
AT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL MAINLY BE ALONG AND NEAR THE
KS/CO BORDER, WHERE A MARGINAL RISK IS BEING HIGHLIGHTED BY SPC.
ONLY 5% PROBABILITIES FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS EXIST.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD ACCOMPANY STORMS INTO THE EVENING
GIVEN HIGH PWAT VALUES, THOUGH STORMS SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE
ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE OVERALL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK. WPC HAS
REDUCED THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK TO A MARGINAL RISK AS A
RESULT, MENTIONING ONLY ISOLATED AREAS OF WATER ISSUES.
SUNDAY, TRENDS HAVE INDICATED A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. AS SUCH, THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES COULD INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS A
LARGE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ENVIRONMENT COULD BECOME A
BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER STORM ACTIVITY. CAMS INDICATE
COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT, NOTABLY -10 TO -12C 500 MB
TEMPERATURES, LENDING TO HIGHER INSTABILITY AND STEEPER LAPSE
RATES. WITH THE TROUGH CLOSER OVER WESTERN KANSAS, THINK SHEAR
WILL BE BETTER ALIGNED AS WELL, LEADING TO BETTER STORM
ORGANIZATION. WHEREVER THE FRONT IS ULTIMATELY SITUATED, THEN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. SPC MARGINAL RISK IS IN PLACE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IS POSSIBLE.
LOOKING INTO NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S. MIDWEEK STORM
CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST, WITH 30-60% CHANCE POPS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, BUT WE
DO INTRODUCE SOME ADVERSE WEATHER TOWARD THE END. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. MAIN WEATHER WILL BE THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS COULD REACH 30-35 KNOTS AT TIMES. A WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN PROGRESS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS INTO
THIS EVENING, AND WITH IT, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY.
STORMS SHOULD BE NON-SEVERE BY THE TIME THEY REACH ANY OF THE
TERMINALS, WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED HEAVY RAINS WITH THE ACTIVITY.
INCLUDED PROB30S FOR THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT LBL AND GCK
INTO SATURDAY EVENING, WITH DDC AND HYS CHANCES INCREASING AFTER
THE TAF PERIOD AND LIKELY WILL BE ADDED IN SUBSEQUENT TAF
UPDATES.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BENNETT
AVIATION...BENNETT
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