409
FXUS63 KDDC 131600
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1100 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION/KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY AND WARM SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, AND SOME
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
- SEASONABLE LATE SUMMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.
- THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED WITH
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ABOUT WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS FROM YESTERDAY EVENING AND LATEST
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 500 MB TROUGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEVADA
AND WESTERN UTAH, WITH FLOW STRETCHING ALL THE WAY TO THE
U.S./MEXICO BORDER. ITS SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW HAS JUST BEGUN
IMPINGING ON THE HIGH PLAINS AND WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING.
THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE MAJOR PLAYMAKER IN SENSIBLE WEATHER
THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, BRINGING CHANCES FOR
STORMS BOTH DAYS.
TODAY, WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT,
EXPECTING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO INCREASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, MAINLY AFTER 2PM, FIRST DEVELOPING IN WESTERN ZONES.
OVERALL ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO ONLY BE MODEST FOR SEVERE STORM
ACTIVITY WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY LESS THAN 1,000 J/KG. ANY CHANCE
AT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL MAINLY BE ALONG AND NEAR THE
KS/CO BORDER, WHERE A MARGINAL RISK IS BEING HIGHLIGHTED BY SPC.
ONLY 5% PROBABILITIES FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS EXIST.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD ACCOMPANY STORMS INTO THE EVENING
GIVEN HIGH PWAT VALUES, THOUGH STORMS SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE
ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE OVERALL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK. WPC HAS
REDUCED THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK TO A MARGINAL RISK AS A
RESULT, MENTIONING ONLY ISOLATED AREAS OF WATER ISSUES.
SUNDAY, TRENDS HAVE INDICATED A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. AS SUCH, THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES COULD INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS A
LARGE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ENVIRONMENT COULD BECOME A
BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER STORM ACTIVITY. CAMS INDICATE
COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT, NOTABLY -10 TO -12C 500 MB
TEMPERATURES, LENDING TO HIGHER INSTABILITY AND STEEPER LAPSE
RATES. WITH THE TROUGH CLOSER OVER WESTERN KANSAS, THINK SHEAR
WILL BE BETTER ALIGNED AS WELL, LEADING TO BETTER STORM
ORGANIZATION. WHEREVER THE FRONT IS ULTIMATELY SITUATED, THEN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. SPC MARGINAL RISK IS IN PLACE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IS POSSIBLE.
LOOKING INTO NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S. MIDWEEK STORM
CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST, WITH 30-60% CHANCE POPS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
VFR WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. STRONG
S/SW WINDS WILL GUST 28-32 KTS AT ALL AIRPORTS THROUGH 00Z SUN,
WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE CO/KS STATE LINE
AROUND 00Z SUN, PROGRESS EASTWARD TO A GCK-LBL LINE BY 03Z SUN,
AND POTENTIALLY IMPACT ALL AIRPORTS, AT LEAST INTERMITTENTLY,
THROUGH 12Z SUN. INCLUDED -SHRA/TSRA AND CB MENTIONS, BUT WITH
POOR MODEL AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING, CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
QUITE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE CONVECTIVE TEMPO GROUPS THIS UPDATE.
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE RISK FOR AVIATION THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE
OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 KTS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BR AND
HEAVY RAIN. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE PREVALENT SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH MVFR CEILINGS MOST PROBABLE AT GCK BY 12Z SUN.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BENNETT
AVIATION...TURNER
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