636
FXUS63 KDDC 131900
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
200 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY AND WARM SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, AND SOME
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
- SEASONABLE LATE SUMMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.
- THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED WITH
THE NEXT COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
MIDDAY INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED WIDESPREAD CIRRUS
ACROSS KANSAS AND THE ADJOINING PLAINS, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH SOUTH WINDS
AGAIN GUSTING 30-40 MPH. FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
IS SUBSTANTIAL, AS EVIDENCED BY ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG I-25
AND ACROSS NEW MEXICO AT MIDDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN NEW
MEXICO THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, WHERE SOME ARE EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL/WIND GUSTS. EXPECTATION IS FOR STORMS TO
REACH THE KS/CO BORDER AROUND 5-7 PM, AS 12Z ARW AND VARIOUS
OTHER MODELS SUGGEST. THE RISK FOR ANY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
AND/OR OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST ADJACENT TO COLORADO EARLY
THIS EVENING, PER SPC 5% WIND/HAIL PROBABILITY.
THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH OVERNIGHT,
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY 7 AM SUNDAY. FORCING FOR
ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL ENCOURAGE AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT, SPREADING FROM
WEST TO EAST. INSTABILITY AND BUOYANCY WILL BE LIMITED, GIVEN
MID/HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND NOCTURNAL TIMING TONIGHT,
BUT STILL EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION IS ANTICIPATED WHERE STORMS
TRACK. MODEL AGREEMENT WITH RAIN/STORM COVERAGE TONIGHT IS
RATHER POOR, WITH MANY CAMS DISSOLVING CONVECTION WITH EASTWARD
PROGRESS. ECMWF AND ITS EPS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ON THE OTHER HAND
ARE QUITE WET, AND POPS WERE INCREASED FURTHER INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY TONIGHT BASED ON THIS GUIDANCE.
ANY RAIN IN PROGRESS SUNDAY MORNING WILL TREND TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AS THE TROUGH AXIS
ARRIVES OVER SW KS DURING THE DAY. AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEARING
IS EXPECTED DAYLIGHT SUNDAY, AND THE ADDED SUNSHINE COMBINED
WITH COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES (500 MB AS COLD AS -12C)
WILL PRODUCE STRONGER INSTABILITY MIDDAY/AFTERNOON SUNDAY (CAPE
TO 2000 J/KG). AS SUCH, POPS AT LEAST IN THE CHANCE/SCATTERED
CATEGORY PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH REDEVELOPMENT
LIKELY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS SHOWN BY 12Z NAM. WITH STRONGER
INSTABILITY AND COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPS, ANY STORMS WILL BE MORE
CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL, PER SPC DAY 2 MARGINAL RISK.
SUNDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER BENEATH THE PASSING TROUGH,
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REDUCED TO THE LOWER 80S.
SOUTH WINDS RETURN QUICKLY MONDAY, AND WITH NET WARMING OF ABOUT
+4C AT 850 MB, TEMPERATURES WILL BOUNCE BACK TO THE UPPER 80S
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MONDAY WILL BE DRY WITH NO FORCING EVIDENT.
SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY, WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING
TROUGH CENTERED NEAR SW WYOMING 7 PM TUESDAY. NBM POPS INCREASE
WELL INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
THE TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAKE PROGRESS THROUGH
SW KS. SHEAR, FLOW AND INSTABILITY ARE ALL EXPECTED TO BE
MODEST, TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER, BUT STILL SOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE QUITE PROBABLE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES OF
COOLING ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
REDUCED TO NEAR 80.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, BROAD MIDLEVEL TROUGHING FROM THE
CORN BELT TO THE MIDWEST WILL ENSURE NWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW
CONTINUES, PREVENTING ANY HEAT FROM RETURNING, AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES NEAR LATE SUMMER SEASONAL NORMALS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
VFR WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. STRONG
S/SW WINDS WILL GUST 28-32 KTS AT ALL AIRPORTS THROUGH 00Z SUN,
WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE CO/KS STATE LINE
AROUND 00Z SUN, PROGRESS EASTWARD TO A GCK-LBL LINE BY 03Z SUN,
AND POTENTIALLY IMPACT ALL AIRPORTS, AT LEAST INTERMITTENTLY,
THROUGH 12Z SUN. INCLUDED -SHRA/TSRA AND CB MENTIONS, BUT WITH
POOR MODEL AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING, CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
QUITE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE CONVECTIVE TEMPO GROUPS THIS UPDATE.
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE RISK FOR AVIATION THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE
OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 KTS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BR AND
HEAVY RAIN. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE PREVALENT SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH MVFR CEILINGS MOST PROBABLE AT GCK BY 12Z SUN.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...TURNER
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