932
FXUS63 KDDC 140531
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1231 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY AND WARM SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, AND SOME
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
- SEASONABLE LATE SUMMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.
- THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED WITH
THE NEXT COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
MIDDAY INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED WIDESPREAD CIRRUS
ACROSS KANSAS AND THE ADJOINING PLAINS, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH SOUTH WINDS
AGAIN GUSTING 30-40 MPH. FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
IS SUBSTANTIAL, AS EVIDENCED BY ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG I-25
AND ACROSS NEW MEXICO AT MIDDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN NEW
MEXICO THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, WHERE SOME ARE EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL/WIND GUSTS. EXPECTATION IS FOR STORMS TO
REACH THE KS/CO BORDER AROUND 5-7 PM, AS 12Z ARW AND VARIOUS
OTHER MODELS SUGGEST. THE RISK FOR ANY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
AND/OR OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST ADJACENT TO COLORADO EARLY
THIS EVENING, PER SPC 5% WIND/HAIL PROBABILITY.
THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH OVERNIGHT,
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY 7 AM SUNDAY. FORCING FOR
ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL ENCOURAGE AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT, SPREADING FROM
WEST TO EAST. INSTABILITY AND BUOYANCY WILL BE LIMITED, GIVEN
MID/HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND NOCTURNAL TIMING TONIGHT,
BUT STILL EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION IS ANTICIPATED WHERE STORMS
TRACK. MODEL AGREEMENT WITH RAIN/STORM COVERAGE TONIGHT IS
RATHER POOR, WITH MANY CAMS DISSOLVING CONVECTION WITH EASTWARD
PROGRESS. ECMWF AND ITS EPS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ON THE OTHER HAND
ARE QUITE WET, AND POPS WERE INCREASED FURTHER INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY TONIGHT BASED ON THIS GUIDANCE.
ANY RAIN IN PROGRESS SUNDAY MORNING WILL TREND TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AS THE TROUGH AXIS
ARRIVES OVER SW KS DURING THE DAY. AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEARING
IS EXPECTED DAYLIGHT SUNDAY, AND THE ADDED SUNSHINE COMBINED
WITH COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES (500 MB AS COLD AS -12C)
WILL PRODUCE STRONGER INSTABILITY MIDDAY/AFTERNOON SUNDAY (CAPE
TO 2000 J/KG). AS SUCH, POPS AT LEAST IN THE CHANCE/SCATTERED
CATEGORY PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH REDEVELOPMENT
LIKELY INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS SHOWN BY 12Z NAM. WITH STRONGER
INSTABILITY AND COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPS, ANY STORMS WILL BE MORE
CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL, PER SPC DAY 2 MARGINAL RISK.
SUNDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER BENEATH THE PASSING TROUGH,
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REDUCED TO THE LOWER 80S.
SOUTH WINDS RETURN QUICKLY MONDAY, AND WITH NET WARMING OF ABOUT
+4C AT 850 MB, TEMPERATURES WILL BOUNCE BACK TO THE UPPER 80S
MONDAY AFTERNOON. MONDAY WILL BE DRY WITH NO FORCING EVIDENT.
SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY, WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING
TROUGH CENTERED NEAR SW WYOMING 7 PM TUESDAY. NBM POPS INCREASE
WELL INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
THE TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAKE PROGRESS THROUGH
SW KS. SHEAR, FLOW AND INSTABILITY ARE ALL EXPECTED TO BE
MODEST, TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER, BUT STILL SOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE QUITE PROBABLE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES OF
COOLING ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
REDUCED TO NEAR 80.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, BROAD MIDLEVEL TROUGHING FROM THE
CORN BELT TO THE MIDWEST WILL ENSURE NWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW
CONTINUES, PREVENTING ANY HEAT FROM RETURNING, AND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES NEAR LATE SUMMER SEASONAL NORMALS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
CONVECTION ONGOING AT 04Z SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WITH
A SURFACE BOUNDARY. COVERAGE MAY INCREASE AS SYNOPTIC LIFT
IMPROVES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AFTER 09Z. GARDEN
CITY AND LIBERAL HAVE THE HIGHEST RISK FOR STEADIER, HEAVIER
SHOWERS BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. DODGE CITY CAN EXPECT A CHANCE OF
STORMS BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z SUNDAY. AT HAYS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE FROM 12Z AND 18Z
BEFORE TAPERING OFF. GUSTY WINDS NEAR 30 KNOTS, VISIBILITIES OF
1 TO 3 MILES, AND CEILINGS NEAR 3000 FEET AGL ARE POSSIBLE
DURING HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. OUTSIDE THESE STORMS, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL BREAKS IN CEILINGS AFTER
18Z SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST/SOUTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY 10 TO 20 KNOTS. HAYS, DODGE CITY AND
LIBERAL CAN EXPECT THESE WINDS TO RETURNING TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...BURGERT
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