946
FXUS63 KDDC 141014
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
514 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS. NORTH OF K-96 AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
- THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED WITH
THE NEXT COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED EARLIER THIS MORNING IN SOUTHWEST
KANSAS WAS ASSOCIATED TO A SURFACE BOUNDARY AND LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AHEAD OF A NORTHEAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HIGH PWAT
VALUES (+1.3INCH) AND 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WERE ALSO
OBSERVED ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH.
SHORT TERM MODELS EARLIER TODAY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
MOVING THE SCATTERED OVERNIGHT CONVECTION EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 BY
7 AM THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS THEN
ANTICIPATED TO BRIEFLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE EARLY AT LEAST NOON NEAR AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 GIVEN THE
INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE, IMPROVED MOISTURE TRANSPORT
BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MILLIBARS, AND BETTER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
DUE TO COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE PRIMARY RISK THIS MORNING
FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.
BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
START TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE COMBINATION
OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD
TO IMPROVED LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 700 AND 500 MILLIBARS,
POTENTIALLY HIGHER THAN CURRENT MODELS SUGGEST. GIVEN THIS
INSTABILITY IN THE MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE AND LOW LEVEL FORCING NEAR
THE COLD FRONT, THERE IS A 20-40% CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE, BASED ON
FORECASTED 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 30 KNOTS OR HIGHER AND MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY. THE MAIN HAZARDS APPEAR TO BE WIND GUSTS OF
60 MPH AND HAIL 1 INCH OR LARGER, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A LINE
FROM DIGHTON TO LARNED.
FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF K-96...IN ADDITION TO THE LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
BY LATE DAY GIVEN THE FORECAST LOCATION OF SOME COLD 500MB
TEMPERATURES AND THE FORECAST LOCATION OF THE COLD FRONT.
CONFIDENCE IN TORNADO POTENTIAL IS LOW EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER IT IS ALSO SURPRISING THIS MORNING THAT MODELS DO NOT
SHOW STRONGER SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA/NORTHWEST KANSAS GIVEN THE COLD 500MB TROUGH PLACEMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. IF STRONGER CYCLOGENESIS DOES OCCUR ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, OUR SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
ORIENTED BE MORE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS
LATE IN THE DAY (NORTH OF K96). THIS WOULD FAVOR MORE BACKED
WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL IMPROVE THE LOW
LEVEL SHEAR. GIVEN THIS COMBINED WITH AN -12 TO -14C 500MB
TROUGH, TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S (WHICH
WILL IMPROVE 0-3KM CAPES) AND LOCATION OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES
RAISES THE CONCERN FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.
THERE STORMS STORMS DEVELOPING LATE TODAY WILL MOVE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE COLD FRONT EXITS SOUTHWEST KANSAS,
LEADING TO A BRIEF BREAK IN WET WEATHER ON MONDAY. BY MID WEEK,
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLIER IN
THE WEEK WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER WESTERN UNITED STATES UPPER
STORM SYSTEM AS IT MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK, ALONG WITH OUR NEXT COLD
FRONT. FOLLOWING THIS MID WEEK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, A PERIOD OF
COOLER, MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 507 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
MODELS REMAIN SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THE ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION OCCURRING AT 09Z INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AFTER 12Z TODAY AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES EAST OF
HIGHWAY 283. GENERAL CONSENSUS FROM THE MODELS IS THAT THE
BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TODAY WILL BE IN THE
DODGE CITY AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. IN HAYS THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z, THEN
TAPERING OFF. AS THE STORMS END...SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND BUFR SOUNDINGS, AS GUSTY
SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS. ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AFTER 21Z TODAY. HAYS (30%) HAS THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR LATE DAY STORMS, FOLLOWED BY DODGE CITY (<20%). VFR
CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING AND EARLY TONIGHT,
WITH THE LOWEST CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 3000 TO 7000 FT AGL. WINDS
AWAY FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTHERLY, INCREASING TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT
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