839
FXUS63 KDDC 141028 CCA
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
528 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS. NORTH OF K-96 AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
- THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED WITH
THE NEXT COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED EARLIER THIS MORNING IN SOUTHWEST
KANSAS WAS ASSOCIATED TO A SURFACE BOUNDARY AND LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AHEAD OF A NORTHEAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HIGH PWAT
VALUES (+1.3INCH) AND 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WERE ALSO
OBSERVED ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH.
SHORT TERM MODELS EARLIER TODAY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
MOVING THE SCATTERED OVERNIGHT CONVECTION EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 BY
7 AM THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS THEN
ANTICIPATED TO BRIEFLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE EARLY AT LEAST NOON NEAR AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 GIVEN THE
INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE, IMPROVED MOISTURE TRANSPORT
BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MILLIBARS, AND BETTER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
DUE TO COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE PRIMARY RISK THIS MORNING
FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.
BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
START TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE COMBINATION
OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD
TO IMPROVED LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 700 AND 500 MILLIBARS,
POTENTIALLY HIGHER THAN CURRENT MODELS SUGGEST. GIVEN THIS
INSTABILITY IN THE MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE AND LOW LEVEL FORCING NEAR
THE COLD FRONT, THERE IS A 20-40% CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE, BASED ON
FORECASTED 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 30 KNOTS OR HIGHER AND MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY. THE MAIN HAZARDS APPEAR TO BE WIND GUSTS OF
60 MPH AND HAIL 1 INCH OR LARGER, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A LINE
FROM DIGHTON TO LARNED.
FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF K-96...IN ADDITION TO THE LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
BY LATE DAY GIVEN THE FORECAST LOCATION OF SOME COLD 500MB
TEMPERATURES AND THE FORECAST LOCATION OF THE COLD FRONT.
CONFIDENCE IN TORNADO POTENTIAL IS LOW EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER IT IS ALSO SURPRISING THIS MORNING THAT MODELS DO NOT
SHOW STRONGER SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA/NORTHWEST KANSAS GIVEN THE COLD 500MB TROUGH PLACEMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. IF STRONGER CYCLOGENESIS DOES OCCUR ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, OUR SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
ORIENTED BE MORE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS
LATE IN THE DAY (NORTH OF K96). THIS WOULD FAVOR MORE BACKED
WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL IMPROVE THE LOW
LEVEL SHEAR. GIVEN THIS COMBINED WITH AN -12 TO -14C 500MB
TROUGH, TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S (WHICH
WILL IMPROVE 0-3KM CAPES) AND LOCATION OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES
RAISES THE CONCERN FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.
THE STORMS STORMS DEVELOPING LATE TODAY WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE COLD FRONT EXITS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, LEADING
TO A BRIEF BREAK IN WET WEATHER ON MONDAY. BY MID WEEK, THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLIER IN THE WEEK
WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER WESTERN UNITED STATES UPPER STORM
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK, ALONG WITH OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. FOLLOWING THIS
MID WEEK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, A PERIOD OF COOLER, MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 507 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
MODELS REMAIN SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THE ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION OCCURRING AT 09Z INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AFTER 12Z TODAY AS THEY MOVE EAST OF HIGHWAY 283. GENERAL
CONSENSUS FROM THE MODELS IS THAT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TODAY WILL BE IN THE DODGE CITY AREA OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO. IN HAYS THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO
LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z, THEN TAPERING OFF. AS THE STORMS
END...SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST BASED ON THE LATEST
GUIDANCE AND BUFR SOUNDINGS, AS GUSTY SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS AFTER 21Z TODAY.
HAYS (30%) HAS THE BETTER CHANCE FOR LATE DAY STORMS, FOLLOWED BY
DODGE CITY (<20%). VFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING
AND EARLY TONIGHT, WITH THE LOWEST CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 3000 TO
7000 FT AGL. WINDS AWAY FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTHERLY,
INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT
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