379
FXUS63 KDDC 141600
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1100 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION/KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
- LIMITED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE, WITH HAIL THE PRIMARY
RISK.
- DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE 70S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED EARLIER THIS MORNING IN SOUTHWEST
KANSAS WAS ASSOCIATED TO A SURFACE BOUNDARY AND LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AHEAD OF A NORTHEAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HIGH PWAT
VALUES (+1.3INCH) AND 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WERE ALSO
OBSERVED ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH.
SHORT TERM MODELS EARLIER TODAY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
MOVING THE SCATTERED OVERNIGHT CONVECTION EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 BY
7 AM THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS THEN
ANTICIPATED TO BRIEFLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE EARLY AT LEAST NOON NEAR AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 GIVEN THE
INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE, IMPROVED MOISTURE TRANSPORT
BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MILLIBARS, AND BETTER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
DUE TO COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE PRIMARY RISK THIS MORNING
FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.
BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
START TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE COMBINATION
OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD
TO IMPROVED LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 700 AND 500 MILLIBARS,
POTENTIALLY HIGHER THAN CURRENT MODELS SUGGEST. GIVEN THIS
INSTABILITY IN THE MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE AND LOW LEVEL FORCING NEAR
THE COLD FRONT, THERE IS A 20-40% CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE, BASED ON
FORECASTED 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 30 KNOTS OR HIGHER AND MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY. THE MAIN HAZARDS APPEAR TO BE WIND GUSTS OF
60 MPH AND HAIL 1 INCH OR LARGER, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A LINE
FROM DIGHTON TO LARNED.
FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF K-96...IN ADDITION TO THE LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
BY LATE DAY GIVEN THE FORECAST LOCATION OF SOME COLD 500MB
TEMPERATURES AND THE FORECAST LOCATION OF THE COLD FRONT.
CONFIDENCE IN TORNADO POTENTIAL IS LOW EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER IT IS ALSO SURPRISING THIS MORNING THAT MODELS DO NOT
SHOW STRONGER SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA/NORTHWEST KANSAS GIVEN THE COLD 500MB TROUGH PLACEMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. IF STRONGER CYCLOGENESIS DOES OCCUR ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA, OUR SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
ORIENTED BE MORE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS
LATE IN THE DAY (NORTH OF K96). THIS WOULD FAVOR MORE BACKED
WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL IMPROVE THE LOW
LEVEL SHEAR. GIVEN THIS COMBINED WITH AN -12 TO -14C 500MB
TROUGH, TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S (WHICH
WILL IMPROVE 0-3KM CAPES) AND LOCATION OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES
RAISES THE CONCERN FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.
THE STORMS STORMS DEVELOPING LATE TODAY WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE COLD FRONT EXITS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, LEADING
TO A BRIEF BREAK IN WET WEATHER ON MONDAY. BY MID WEEK, THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLIER IN THE WEEK
WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER WESTERN UNITED STATES UPPER STORM
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK, ALONG WITH OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. FOLLOWING THIS
MID WEEK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, A PERIOD OF COOLER, MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT ALL AIRPORTS THROUGH
THIS TAF PERIOD. S/SW WINDS WILL GUST 20-25 KTS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
AFTER 21Z SUN, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS EAST OF LBL/DDC,
AND NEAR HYS. CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHEST FOR IMPACTS AT HYS, AS SUCH
A CONVECTIVE TEMPO GROUP WAS MAINTAINED IN THE HYS TAF 00-03Z
MON. KEPT THE OTHER TAFS DRY. OTHERWISE, GOOD FLYING WEATHER
IS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z MON, WITH VFR/SKC AND LIGHT WINDS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BURGERT
AVIATION...TURNER
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