355
FXUS63 KDDC 150808
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
308 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLY WARM THIS AFTERNOON.
- THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES IMPROVING MID WEEK WITH THE NEXT TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS THE LAST
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
EARLIER THIS MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER
NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL KANSAS WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. 850MB TEMPERATURES
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS RANGED FROM 15 TO 20C.
FOR TODAY...SHORT TERM MODELS AGREE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE NORTH PLAINS. THIS WILL
BRING A WESTERLY FLOW TO EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS. AS
A RESULT 850MB TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AS WARM AS
YESTERDAY OR MAYBE EVEN WARM BY A DEGREE OR TWO. GIVEN THAT
HIGHS TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE 80S IT LOOKS LIKE A
PLEASANT SEPTEMBER DAY. THERE WILL BE FEW SUBTLE WAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE DEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW WILL CROSSING SOUTHWEST KANSAS
EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TODAY. AT THIS TIME IT SEEMS
THAT ONLY CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE SUBTLE WAVES, BUT IF THERE
IS ENOUGH LIFT AHEAD OF ONE OF THESE FEATURES, A BRIEF ISOLATED
SHOWER OR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY DEVELOP SOUTH AND EAST OF
DODGE CITY. THIS IS WHERE THE BETTER 850-700MB MOISTURE AND
FORCING WILL BE PRESENT, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.
RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT...IN ADDITION TO
THE SUBTLE UPPER WAVES CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY, WE
WILL BE ALSO MONITORING A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
LOW/TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO DEEPEN AND APPROACH OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. AS IT APPROACHES
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES ALLOWING A MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW TO RETURN TO
WESTERN KANSAS. THIS IMPROVED MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL
FORCING OVER EASTERN COLORADO FROM THE LEE TROUGH LATE TUESDAY
WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS
WILL THEN SPREAD EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. THIS FIRST
ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND POSSIBLY DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY MID WEEK...THE FIRST ROUND OF STORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL HAVE BETTER UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. THIS IS BASED ON THE LATEST SHORT TERM ENSEMBLES TIMING
OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW/TROUGH AND A 250MB JET DIGGING
INTO THE BASE OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO BE EXITING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THEN START TO MOVE OUT
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE PLAINS, A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS,
AIDING IN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DURING THE DAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE TIME
OF GREATEST INTEREST FOR SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE
SYNOPTIC LIFT, TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND FAVORABLE
MUCAPE/SHEAR WITH THIS COLD FRONT FROM THE SREF. MEAN SHEAR IS
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE (20-30 KNOTS), BUT ORGANIZED MULTICELLS
ARE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD BRING SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. MEAN
PWATS ARE FORECAST TO BE 1 TO 1.25 INCHES SUPPORTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THESE STORMS. AT THIS TIME THE
CONFIDENCE FOR THE RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS FURTHER
ENHANCED BY THE ECMWF EXTREME FORECAST INDEX OF 0.8 TO 0.9 WITH
A POSITIVE SHIFT OF TAILS.
COOLER AIR RETURNS TO WESTERN KANSAS LATE WEEK...AFTER THE COLD
FRONT PASSES ON WEDNESDAY, UNSEASONABLY COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE
INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH SMALL CHANCES
(20-30%) FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE NOT AN
EXTREMELY UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR MASS, THE COMBINATION OF MEAN
850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE 10 TO 15C RANGE,
LINGERING CLOUD COVER, AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION SUGGESTS THAT
THURSDAY MAY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THIS
IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF EFI/SOT SHOWING A
-0.5 TO -0.6 EFI ENDING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND 00Z THU.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT
UNDER CLEAR SKIES. A SURFACE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY SITUATED
BETWEEN DODGE CITY AND GARDEN CITY AT 04Z IS FORECAST TO
RETROGRADE WEST OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE MOISTURE POOLING JUST EAST
OF THIS BOUNDARY, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A NARROW BAND OF EARLY
MORNING FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS (BELOW 1000FT AGL) TO DEVELOP
WHEREVER THIS BOUNDARY ENDS UP. SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE SHOWN
GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THAT THE MOST
FAVORABLE AREA FOR THIS FOG AND LOW STATUS WILL BE JUST WEST OF
THE LIBERAL AND GARDEN CITY AREAS. HOWEVER CONSIDERING THE
CURRENT BOUNDARY LOCATION AND LIGHT WINDS EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AM CURRENTLY FAVORING AT LEAST A TEMPORARY PERIOD OF IFR
VISIBILITY TO BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z IN THE GARDEN CITY
AND LIBERAL AREAS. AFTER 14Z THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BURGERT
AVIATION...BURGERT
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