211
FXUS63 KDDC 160536
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1236 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND WARM TUESDAY
- SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY
- MORE STORM CHANCES SHIFTING EAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW
PATTERN WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UP 80S TO AROUND 90F RANGE. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROF WILL
START TO INFLUENCE THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND NORTHEAST MIDWEEK.
THIS WILL REINTRODUCE STORM CHANCES ACROSS THE FA. THE NBM POPS
ARE IN THE 30% TO 60% RANGE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, AS BOTH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE WEAK
BUT PRESENT. BRIEF HEAVING RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, AS
PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER 1", WHICH IS ON THE HIGHER SIDE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
STORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN ZONES THURSDAY AS THE
MAIN WAVE STARTS TO MOVE EAST. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE KEPT
ACROSS THE EAST DURING THE DAY AND EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE A
LITTLE COOLER WITH VALUES MAINLY IN THE 70S DURING THIS PERIOD.
ONLY ISOLATED STORM CHANCES EXIST FRIDAY AS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
WILL BE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS, INCLUDING FOR SATURDAY AS
WELL.
THE NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING PLEASANT WITH WARM HIGHS AND ONLY
ISOLATED STORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE MIX OF 50S TO 60S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS
SURFACE PRESSURES FALL ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. BETWEEN 15Z
AND 18Z TODAY, STRONGER WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
NEAR 15 KNOTS, WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TODAY. TONIGHT, THE GARDEN CITY AREA SHOULD MONITOR
A POTENTIAL (30% OR LESS) FOR HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 03Z
WEDNESDAY.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SUGDEN
AVIATION...BURGERT
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