508
FXUS63 KDDC 170528
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1228 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
- MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
- CONTINUE STORM CHANCES TOMORROW
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
WE WILL SEE A RATHER WET PATTERN THROUGH TOMORROW. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THE BEST CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY REDEVELOP
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FARTHER IN WESTERN KANSAS. THIS IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH WAA INDUCED ACTIVITY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NBM POPS ARE RATHER
BROADBRUSHED, AS CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC LOCATION OF STORMS IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. THERE IS NO PARTICULAR CLEAR TREND IN ANY OF THE CAMS
FOR NOW. THIS IS TYPICAL WITH SUCH WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT. A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT TODAY OR TOMORROW, WITH THE MAIN
THREATS BEING GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGHS TOMORROW
WILL BE A MIX OF 70S NORTH TO 80S SOUTH. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 50S NORTHWEST TO 60S SOUTHEAST.
FOR THURSDAY, POPS WILL LIKELY BE SHIFTED ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES
AS A MAIN SYNOPTIC WAVE CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE EAST. HAVE 20% TO 40%
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES AND LESS POPS TO THE WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS POTENTIAL STORM PLACEMENT EVOLUTION. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE
VERY PLEASANT WITH VALUES PEAKING ONLY IN THE 70S. LOWS WILL BE A
LITTLE COOLER FOR A PORTION OF THE FA, WITH WIDESPREAD 50S EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
FOR FRIDAY, SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL BE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. THIS
SUPPORTS THE NOTION OF A DRIER AND WARMER FORECAST. HIGHS WILL STILL
BE PLEASANT THOUGH, WITH VALUES IN THE MIX OF 70S AND 70S. LOWS IN
THE 50S. FOR THE WEEKEND, WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT FAIRLY DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS. ISOLATED STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, HOWEVER, LESS
STORM ACTIVITY IS INDICATED BY BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS WELL
AS THEIR ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS. HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND TO BACK IN THE
80S WITH LOWS IN THE MIX OF 50S AND 60S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS
OF 05Z WEDNESDAY. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST AND
WEAKEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. PRIMARY HAZARDS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS. THESE STORMS AND POSSIBLE HAZARDS WILL IMPACT THE
GARDEN CITY AND LIBERAL BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z, THEN HAYS AND DODGE
CITY BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z. CEILINGS BEHIND THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 4000-9000 FT AGL.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE STORMS WILL SHIFT TO WEST NORTHWEST
AND REMAIN GUSTY FOR SEVERAL HOURS. BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z
WEDNESDAY, WINDS WILL RETURN TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND
DECREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP
FOLLOWING THIS CONVECTION EARLY IN THE DAY AND WE WILL BE
MONITORING THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING REDEVELOPING,
ESPECIALLY IN THE DODGE CITY AND LIBERAL AREAS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BURGERT
AVIATION...FINCH
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