102
FXUS63 KDDC 040400
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1100 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION/KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG SOUTH WINDS SATURDAY, WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
- COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
FAVORING THE NORTHEAST ZONES. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.
- MUCH COOLER AIR ARRIVES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
WV IMAGERY INDICATES RIDGING ALOFT SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE, A CLOSED UPPER LOW
WITHIN A LARGER SCALE TROUGH AXIS IS TRANSITIONING EAST THROUGH
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN. NEAR THE SURFACE, A
LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED IN EASTERN
COLORADO.
AN ONGOING DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AS THE SREF INDICATES THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXITING EASTWARD
OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT WHILE THE APPROACHING TROUGH
AXIS MOVES FARTHER EAST THROUGH UTAH INTO WESTERN COLORADO BY
MID-DAY SATURDAY. DESPITE PREVAILING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLIES
HELPING REINFORCE POOLING MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL AND MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE UPPER
50S(F)/NEAR 60F, INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED KEEPING
PRECIP CHANCES AT BAY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE ARE
VERY MINIMAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (<20%) ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS SATURDAY EVENING AS THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY-TILTED WHILE IT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, SETTING UP AN INCREASINGLY
DIFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN
COLORADO. IN RESPONSE, LOW PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO DEVELOP AND
DEEPEN ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
SHARPENING DRYLINE/TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST INTO
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. WITH STEEPENING LOW/MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY PRESENT, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS
EJECTING H5 VORT MAXIMA INTERACT WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
PROJECTED TO BE PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. A STRAY STORM OR TWO DRIFTING INTO WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS MID/LATE EVENING CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
BETTER CHANCES (40-60%) FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY FOR
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
DAKOTAS, HELPING USHER AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT FARTHER SOUTHEAST
INTO SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING
OUT SUNDAY EVENING. SUFFICIENT AVAILABLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
AND INCREASED FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY SUNDAY
EVENING. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE NBM INDICATING A 30-50%
PROBABILITY OF 12-HR QPF EXCEEDING 0.1 OF AN INCH IN AN AXIS
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL KANSAS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO EASTERN
SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT WITH PREVAILING
SOUTHERLIES SUPPORTING A WARMER AIR MASS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 60S(F) WITH THE HREF SHOWING A
60-80% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW 65F IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO AN 80-90% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES
SLIPPING BELOW 70F IN CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. FOR
SATURDAY, THE HREF PAINTS A WIDESPREAD >90% PROBABILITY OF
TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 80F WITH A 60-80% PROBABILITY OF AN
EXCEEDANCE OF 85F IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. AS A RESULT,
WIDESPREAD 80S(F) REMAINS LIKELY. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST SUNDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SLOWING BEFORE
STALLING OUT SOMEWHERE GENERALLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO
NORTHERN SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
VFR/SKC WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD, BUT STRONG WINDS
WILL IMPACT AVIATION OPERATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. INCLUDED LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN ALL TAFS THROUGH 12Z SAT, WITH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET IN PROGRESS. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
SUNRISE. AFTER 15Z SAT, STRONG SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
AIRPORTS, GUSTING 35-37 KTS. THE STRONGEST SOUTH WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE 21Z SAT - 00Z SUN TIME FRAME. ANOTHER STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT, AND INCLUDED LLWS
AGAIN AFTER 03Z SUN.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...TURNER
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