934
FXUS63 KDDC 051711
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1211 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT ALONG A COLD FRONT
- COOLER MONDAY
- CONTINUED SHOWERY TUESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY EVEN COOLER TEMPS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
EARLY MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A FRONT MOVING ACROSS WYOMING.
THIS FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY TRAVERSE ACROSS THE STATE OF KANSAS LATER
TONIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME, DOWNSLOPE SSW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN A RATHER WARM DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. DEWPOINTS
ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING IN THE 50S AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DO SO THROUGH THE DAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL
RESULT IN CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 40 KT. THE COMBINATION
OF THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS THIS EVENING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE MAIN THREATS ARE HAIL
UP TO 1" AND 50 TO 60 MPH WINDS. TORNADOES ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY.
THE BEST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BE FROM DODGE
CITY NORTHEAST TO HAYS, KANSAS. HAVE KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THIS
AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FORECAST SCENARIO. SPC DOES HAVE US IN A
MARGINAL (RISK LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR A PORTION OF THE STATE, AND
THIS LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH THE LATEST 00Z NWP DATA.
THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT.
PATTERN RECOGNITION AND THE FACT THAT IT IS OCTOBER WOULD SUGGEST
GOING WITH A COOLER SOLUTION. DID SHARPEN UP THE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT FOR MONDAY AS A COOLER SOLUTION WOULD MAKE MORE SENSE.
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE GREATER REGION
TUESDAY MORNING. AN OVERRUNNING SITUATION SHOULD DEVELOP WITH THE
FORMATION OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS TUESDAY MORNING. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD WITH VALUES ONLY IN THE 60S.
NORMAL HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID 70S. LOWS WILL ALSO
TREND COOLER WITH 40S LIKELY TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN A MIX OF 40S
TO 50S FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. FALL IS HERE.
LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE SHORTWAVE RIDGING MIDWEEK. THIS WOULD SUPPORT
THE NOTION OF A DRIER FORECAST AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
BY THURSDAY SHOULD BE BACK TO BEING ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES IN THE
80S FOR HIGHS AND 50S FOR LOWS. MORE THE SAME WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND WITH A CONTINUE WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN
PREVAILING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
AN ACTIVE AVIATION FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THIS EVENING A LINE OF STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ROUGHLY FROM GCK TO HYS AFTER 21Z AND EXPAND TO DDC BY 00Z.
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN HAIL AND GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS UP
TO 50 KTS BETWEEN 22Z-02Z. PROB30 IS INCLUDED FOR ALL TERMINALS
FROM 22Z THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING HOWEVER THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT SHOULD GREATLY SUBSIDE AFTER THIS EVENING AND TRANSITION
TO MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
WILL SHARPLY CHANGE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTH TO NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE WIND SHIFT AT GCK AND HYS
AROUND 23Z, DDC BETWEEN 00-01Z AND LBL CLOSER TO 02Z. WINDS
SHOULD STAY BREEZY SUSTAINED AROUND 20 KTS WITH GUSTS 30+ KTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL BE IN THE ORDER
OF 15-20 KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS OF 25 KTS. POST FRONTAL
STRATUS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP WITH CLOUD CEILINGS FALLING QUICKLY
AFTER 09Z FOR GCK, HYS, AND DDC WITH NEAR 100% PROB OF MVFR
FLIGHT CATEGORY WITH IFR AND LIFR PROB IN THE 20-30% RANGE AFTER
12Z. LBL SHOULD SEE CLOUD CEILINGS FALL TO MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY
BY 12Z. CLOUD CEILINGS SHOULD STAY AT LEAST MVFR THROUGH 18Z
MONDAY.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TATRO
AVIATION...SUGDEN
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