045
FXUS63 KDDC 061000
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
500 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH COLDER TODAY
- SHOWERY TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUED COOL
- DRY AND WARMER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
A COLD FRONT HAS TRAVERSED ABOUT 70% OF THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING.
COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW EXISTS BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS IS A COOL WEATHER
PATTERN FROM A PATTERN RECOGNITION PERSPECTIVE. BOTH CAMS AS WELL
AS OTHER DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA HAS TRENDED COLDER TODAY
FOR HIGHS SINCE YESTERDAY. WITH THE COOL NE LOW LEVEL FLOW, FELT
IT WAS PRUDENT TO GO WITH A COLDER HIGH FORECAST. THE NET RESULT
IS HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE FA. THE FAR SE
COUNTIES WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S. AGAIN, HAVE GONE WITH A COLD
HIGH SOLUTION BASED OF THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS IN THE MODELS AND AS
WELL FROM PATTERN RECOGNITION.
A COOL OVERRUNNING PATTERN WILL SET UP TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GREATER REGION. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED A BIT DRIER THOUGH SINCE YESTERDAYS MODELS RUN. THE
NET RESULT IS STILL A COOL AND SHOWERY DAY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
TUESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH A COLDER SOLUTION FOR HIGHS AS WELL TUESDAY.
THE NBM LOOKS TO BE TOO WARM FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WILL GO
WITH A MIX OF 50S TO 60S FOR HIGHS. IT WILL ALSO FEEL RELATIVELY
CHILLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE 40S, EXCEPT FOR MED LODGE.
MID LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD. THE NET RESULT IS A DRIER FORECAST AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S
TO 80S. LOWS SHOULD MODERATE TO WITH VALUES IN THE 50S BY THE END
OF THE BUSINESS WEEK.
THE NEXT WEEKEND IS LOOKING TO BE WARM AND BREEZY. A LEE TROUGH PATTERN
WILL EVENTUALLY SET UP WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS RIGHT IN TIME
FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN THE 80S. LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 50S TO PERHAPS EVEN LOW 60S. EVEN WITH THIS WARMTH, AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DO NOT LOOK TO BE TOO LOW FOR ANY MAJOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 500 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
OVERALL POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PD. CONSIDERABLE
MOISTURE BEHIND A FRONT ALONG WITH UPSLOPE NE FLOW WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR REDUCED CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. MVFR TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS WILL BE N TO NE 5-15 KT TODAY. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION COULD BRING SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SUGDEN
AVIATION...SUGDEN
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