916
FXUS63 KDDC 070704
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
204 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS
- DRIER AND WARMER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
A MID LEVEL WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GREATER REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS SPARKING OFF SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WANE AS THE MORNING
CONTINUES.
THIS IS OUR LAST MAJOR CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION IN A WHILE. ONCE
AGAIN, TOOK THE COOLER SIDE OF HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WITH THE
LINGERING CLOUD COVER AROUND. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE A MIX OF 50S
WEST TO 60S EAST. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTH
TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH.
FOR WEDNESDAY, WE EXPECT SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
PLAINS.
THIS SUPPORTS THE NOTION OF A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL START
TO REBOUND WITH 60S EAST TO 70 WEST. LOWS HEADING INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
NORMAL LOWS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE UPPER 40S.
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. AT THE LOW LEVELS, A LEE TROUGHING PATTERN WILL PREVAIL.
WITH THE RESULTANT WAA, EXPECT HIGHS TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH
VALUES FIRMLY IN THE 80S FOR BOTH DAYS. LOWS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AS
WELL WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. ONCE AGAIN, NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE A HIGH OF 75F AND A LOW OF
48F.
THE ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS
WELL. THE SAME WEATHER PATTERN WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING AND LOW LEVEL
LEE TROUGHING LOOKS TO CONTINUE. THE NET RESULT IS WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. SOME MINOR GOOD NEWS
IS THAT EVEN WITH THE WARMTH, AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DO NOT
APPEAR TO BOTTOM OUT TOO MUCH IN TERMS OF ANY MAJOR FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. IT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH, BUT DEWPOINTS ARE NOT FORECAST
TO BE PARTICULARLY THAT LOW AT THIS TIME IN BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS AS WELL AS THEIR ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
THERE IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST ON SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MODELS HAVE SOMEWHAT BACKED OFF ON THIS POTENTIAL. AS A RESULT,
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PROB30 GROUPS IN THE TAFS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. CHANCES OF ANY MAJOR AVIATION IMPACTS ARE LOW OTHERWISE.
LIFR/IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST AS THROUGH THE MORNING AS THERE
IS STILL CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE. IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS DRIER AIR EVENTUALLY
ADVECTS IN. WINDS WILL BE N TO NE 5-15 KT.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SUGDEN
AVIATION...SUGDEN
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