866
FXUS63 KDDC 081614
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1114 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS OR PERHAPS SPRINKLES EARLY TODAY
- DRY AND WARM REST OF THE BUSINESS WEEK
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
A MINOR DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST BY SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS
TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY. REALLY, LOOKING
AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS, IT SHOWS THAT THE MAIN IMPACT IS LOW TO MID
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE FA. HAVE CONTINUED LOW 15-20% TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LOW CHANCE THAT THIS ACTIVITY PRECIPITATES AND REACHES THE
GROUND. LOW LEVELS ARE FAIRLY DRY, SO FEEL IS THAT IT IS PRUDENT
TO NOT GET TOO CARRIED AWAY WITH ANY HIGH PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES.
OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE FA WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY. HIGHS TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO MID 70S ACROSS
FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. NORMAL LOWS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE
IN THE UPPER 40S.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS
THE PLAINS. INCREASING 500 HPA HEIGHTS SUPPORTS THE NOTION OF A DRY
FORECAST AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 80S LOOKS
LIKELY FOR BOTH DAYS. THIS IS ABOVE NORMAL AS NORMAL HIGHS THIS TIME
OF YEAR ARE IN THE UPPER 70S. LOWS LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL
WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING TO BE WARM. MID LEVEL RIDGING AND LOW LEVEL
LEE TROUGHING IS FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD. THE NET RESULT IS BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM HIGHS AND MILD LOWS. HIGHS IN THE 80S STILL
LOOK ON TRACK PER THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS WELL AS THEIR ENSEMBLE
COUNTERPARTS. VERY MILD LOWS WITH VALUES IN THE 60S ARE FORECAST
BY THE NBM, AND THIS LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK COMPARING TO SAID 00Z MODEL
OUTPUT.
ATTENTION THE TURNS TO THE START OF THE NEXT BUSINESS WEEK. THERE
MIGHT BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG A BOUNDARY TO SPARK OFF SOME SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE THOUGH IS LOW AS DETERMINISTIC MODELS
AS WELL AS THEIR ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS DIVERGE ON THIS PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL PROBABILITY AT THIS POINT IN SPACE AND TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20KT ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
DEVELOPS IN EASTERN COLORADO, THEN SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT GENERALLY AFTER
23-01Z WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SUGDEN
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
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