932
FXUS63 KDDC 082309
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
609 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.
- WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE IS SLOWLY DEVELOPING IN EASTERN COLORADO.
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
THE SREF SHOWS RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SITUATED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO/EXTREME
WESTERN KANSAS AND ONLY A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT WITHIN
AN NARROW AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN NEAR AND ALONG THE COLORADO
LINE, PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITED INTO EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLIES
REINFORCE A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE HREF
INDICATING A 70-90% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW 60F
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL KANSAS, LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY DOWN
INTO THE 50S(F). PREVAILING SOUTHERLIES WILL FURTHER ENHANCE WARM
AIR ADVECTION INTO WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY, PUSHING H85 TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE 15C IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO A LITTLE ABOVE 20C NEAR THE
COLORADO LINE. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, EXPECT WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S(F), ESPECIALLY WITH THE HREF POINTING TO
A 70-90% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 80F. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ACTUALLY NEARING 90F IN SOME LOCATIONS
BY SUNDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT IS SLOW TO EXIT EASTWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS SOUTHEAST
WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY 02Z THURSDAY. THESE WINDS
WILL PRECEDE A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT. DESPITE THIS
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
NOT ANTICIPATED BY CAMS OR GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
ENVIRONMENT PATCHY FOG BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z THURSDAY CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. AT THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY FOR PATCHY FOG IS LESS
THAN 30% SO WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF FOG IN THE 00Z TAFS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT AROUND KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS AS THE WARM FRONT PASSES BETWEEN 12Z AND
18Z THURSDAY.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...BURGERT
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