550
FXUS63 KDDC 131019
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
519 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRAMATICALLY COOLER WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND
LOWERED CEILING TODAY
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING
- WINDY AND WARMER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
TODAY WILL BE DRAMATICALLY COOLER WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND
LOWERED CEILING. CLOUD CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY
AS WARM ADVECTION ALOFT OVERRUNS THE INVADING MUCH COOLER AIR MASS.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL TREND EASTERLY AND SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. CLOUDS AND COLD
ADVECTION WILL REDUCE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER TO MID
60S. A FEW AREAS MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 50S. GIVEN THE
DEVELOPING OVERRUNNING PATTERN, SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THEN SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. CLOUDY
SKIES CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 50S WITH LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS.
FLOW AMPLIFIES SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY, AS A STRONG MIDLEVEL CYCLONE
COMES ONSHORE IN CALIFORNIA, FORCING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO
STRENGTHEN OVER TEXAS. IMPROVING WEATHER WILL RESULT TUESDAY, WITH
SOUTH WINDS RETURNING, DECREASING CLOUDS, AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S. ADDITIONAL WARMING INTO THE LOWER 80S, AND STRONGER
SOUTH WINDS, ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. GREAT BASIN CYCLONE WILL MAKE
EASTWARD PROGRESS, WITH STRONGER LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO, RESULTING IN SOUTH WINDS GUSTING NEAR 40 MPH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
MODEL GUIDANCE THEN DEPICTS THE GREAT BASIN CYCLONE EJECTING INTO
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND STRONG SOUTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS A RESULT. WITH MUCH OF THE ENERGY FROM THIS
TROUGH EJECTING WELL TO THE NORTH INTO CANADA THROUGH FRIDAY, MODELS
ARE TRENDING TO A WEAKER FIRST COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON FRIDAY. A MUCH
STRONGER SECONDARY COLD FRONT APPEARS TIMED FOR SATURDAY, AS
ADDITIONAL JET ENERGY DIVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. RAINFALL
PROSPECTS WITH SATURDAY'S COLD FRONT APPEAR LIMITED WITH SCANT
MOISTURE, BUT MUCH COLDER MORNING LOWS ARE EXPECTED BY NEXT SUNDAY,
FROM THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 519 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
CEILINGS WILL START TO LOWER THIS MORNING LEADING TO MVFR
CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AND FROM THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, THEN DECREASE IN SPEED AND
SHIFT TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION BY THIS EVENING.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42
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