255
FXUS63 KDDC 131900
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
200 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRAMATICALLY COOLER MONDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS SW KS.
- DECREASING CLOUDS AND WARMER TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- WINDY AND WARMER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
MIDDAY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OUTLINED THE COLD FRONT POSITION,
SLOWING DOWN AND BECOMING STATIONARY, FROM NEAR CLOVIS NEW
MEXICO TO NEAR WICHITA. DRAMATICALLY COOLER AIR HAS ARRIVED, AND
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUD DECKS EXPECTED TO THICKEN AND
LOWER. SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES AT MIDDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE NORTHWESTWARD, AS A WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN ESTABLISHES OVER THE COOL BOUNDARY LAYER.
STRATUS WILL BECOME MUCH MORE PREVALENT THROUGH SUNSET, AS
NORTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKEN.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT, LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH SW KS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT,
WITH MODELS SHOWING SOME CONSENSUS WITH COVERAGE FAVORING THE
WESTERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. POP GRIDS WERE INCREASED INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THESE AREAS FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT.
RAIN WILL BE LIGHT WHERE IS DOES FALL, WITH QPF IN THE
0.10-0.20 INCH RANGE. WITH NEAR ZERO CAPE, BOTH SURFACE BASED
AND ELEVATED, KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. MOIST ADVECTION
AND RISING DEWPOINTS WILL FORCE SUNRISE TUESDAY TEMPERATURES TO
STAY MILD AND WELL INTO THE 50S.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF DODGE CITY, AS THE WARM
FRONT CONTINUES ITS TREK NORTHWARD. THE WARM SECTOR WILL RETURN
TO SW KS IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH DECREASING CLOUDS, INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS, AND WARMER TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 70S.
LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN, AS SOON AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES ADJACENT TO OKLAHOMA.
MIDLEVEL FLOW REMAINS AMPLIFIED WEDNESDAY, WITH SW KS SANDWICHED
BETWEEN A 590+ DM HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NEAR DALLAS, AND A 560 DM
CLOSED LOW OVER NEVADA. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL RESULT, WITH
12Z NAM FORECASTING A 1000 MB SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR DENVER AT
7 PM WEDNESDAY. STRONG SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED, AVERAGING
20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM, WITH LOWER 80S COMMON 4 PM WEDNESDAY. NO
SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES THURSDAY, CONTINUED STRONG SOUTH WINDS
AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AS THE GREAT BASIN CYCLONE EJECTS INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE EJECTING TROUGH MAY CLIP THE NORTHWEST ZONES THURSDAY
EVENING AS NBM POPS SUGGEST, BUT CLEARLY MOST LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY.
A COUPLE OF WEAK, MAINLY DRY COLD FRONTS WILL TRIM TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND WEAKER WITH THE EXPECTED COLD ADVECTION. THE COOLEST DAY
WILL LIKELY BE SATURDAY, AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE
PLAINS, WITH NORTH WINDS KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
(SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN MEX/NBM GUIDANCE). SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BE FAR TOO PROGRESSIVE TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION
IN SW KS, AND THE NBM POPS ARE DRY, WITH ANOTHER QUICK WARMING
TREND FOLLOWING SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
HIGH CONFIDENCE FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL DEGRADE TO IFR/LIFR THIS
TAF PERIOD AT ALL AIRPORTS, WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS, SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS, AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BR. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. RADAR AT 16Z MON
SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE AIRPORTS; SHOWER
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH 12Z TUE AS A WARM FRONT
PUSHES NORTH ACROSS SW KS. WITH LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY, NO
THUNDER IS EXPECTED. LIGHT NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE
PERIOD, TREND E/SELY TUESDAY MORNING.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...TURNER
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