537
FXUS63 KDDC 140035
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
735 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRAMATICALLY COOLER MONDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS SW KS.
- DECREASING CLOUDS AND WARMER TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- WINDY AND WARMER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
MIDDAY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OUTLINED THE COLD FRONT POSITION,
SLOWING DOWN AND BECOMING STATIONARY, FROM NEAR CLOVIS NEW
MEXICO TO NEAR WICHITA. DRAMATICALLY COOLER AIR HAS ARRIVED, AND
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUD DECKS EXPECTED TO THICKEN AND
LOWER. SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ZONES AT MIDDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE NORTHWESTWARD, AS A WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN ESTABLISHES OVER THE COOL BOUNDARY LAYER.
STRATUS WILL BECOME MUCH MORE PREVALENT THROUGH SUNSET, AS
NORTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKEN.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT, LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH SW KS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS WILL RESULT,
WITH MODELS SHOWING SOME CONSENSUS WITH COVERAGE FAVORING THE
WESTERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. POP GRIDS WERE INCREASED INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR THESE AREAS FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT.
RAIN WILL BE LIGHT WHERE IT DOES FALL, WITH QPF IN THE 0.10-0.20
INCH RANGE. WITH NEAR ZERO CAPE, BOTH SURFACE BASED AND ELEVATED,
KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. MOIST ADVECTION AND RISING
DEWPOINTS WILL FORCE SUNRISE TUESDAY TEMPERATURES TO STAY MILD AND
WELL INTO THE 50S.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF DODGE CITY, AS THE WARM
FRONT CONTINUES ITS TREK NORTHWARD. THE WARM SECTOR WILL RETURN
TO SW KS IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH DECREASING CLOUDS, INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS, AND WARMER TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 70S.
LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN, AS SOON AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES ADJACENT TO OKLAHOMA.
MIDLEVEL FLOW REMAINS AMPLIFIED WEDNESDAY, WITH SW KS SANDWICHED
BETWEEN A 590+ DM HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NEAR DALLAS, AND A 560 DM
CLOSED LOW OVER NEVADA. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL RESULT, WITH
12Z NAM FORECASTING A 1000 MB SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR DENVER AT
7 PM WEDNESDAY. STRONG SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED, AVERAGING
20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM, WITH LOWER 80S COMMON 4 PM WEDNESDAY. NO
SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES THURSDAY, CONTINUED STRONG SOUTH WINDS
AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AS THE GREAT BASIN CYCLONE EJECTS INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE EJECTING TROUGH MAY CLIP THE NORTHWEST ZONES THURSDAY
EVENING AS NBM POPS SUGGEST, BUT CLEARLY MOST LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY.
A COUPLE OF WEAK, MAINLY DRY COLD FRONTS WILL TRIM TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND WEAKER WITH THE EXPECTED COLD ADVECTION. THE COOLEST DAY
WILL LIKELY BE SATURDAY, AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE
PLAINS, WITH NORTH WINDS KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
(SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN MEX/NBM GUIDANCE). SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BE FAR TOO PROGRESSIVE TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION
IN SW KS, AND THE NBM POPS ARE DRY, WITH ANOTHER QUICK WARMING
TREND FOLLOWING SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 731 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
AVIATION WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH CEILING FALLING BELOW 1000 FEET ACROSS THE ENTIRE
SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION LATER IN THE EVENING. HIGHER DEWPOINTS
JUST EAST/SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL ADVECT DEEPER
NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT, AND WIDESPREAD, VERY
LOW CEILINGS ARE LIKELY 09Z AND LATER. WE EXPECT ALL TERMINALS
TO SEE LIFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR AT LEAST A 4 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD
WITH SOME AREAS OF FOG, POSSIBLY DENSE, DEVELOPING AS WELL.
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, AND HEAVIER RAIN AREAS SHOULD
ACTUALLY HELP TO IMPROVE VISIBILITY BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
VERY LOW UNTIL LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY TUESDAY.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TURNER
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
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